MLB Betting Analysis - July 3, 2025

Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for July 3, 2025. 

July 3, 2025

Lopsided Action Moving the Number

• Yankees vs. Blue Jays - Total action was extremely lopsided early on with the number sitting at 8.5 and there were signs oddsmakers would be moving this one up to 9 across the board.  BetOnline did so briefly after the game first got posted.  DraftKings did so Thursday morning. Some of the recreational books we follow had moved the total to 9 as well.  That being said, if the number drops back to 8.5 later in the day, do consider the Under here. 
• White Sox vs. Dodgers - The total at DraftKings opened and held at 8.5 but began trending to 9, following most other books. 

Lopsided Action Books Opinion

• Royals vs. Mariners - This one caught our attention early on as the number opened at 7 and moved to the 7.5 though greater than 60% of the total money was on the Under at some, not all, books. 

Lopsided Action Steady Number

• Yankees vs. Blue Jays - New York was seeing a steady line of -120 to -125 despite heavy lopsided action coming their way. 
• Tigers vs. Nationals - Detroit saw greater than 75% of the early action at -155.  They are the better team but that price is rather high for a road favorite nonetheless.  
• Angels vs. Braves - There was little momentum to move the total from 9 to 9.5 early on even though 70% or more of the action was on the Over. 
• Cubs vs. Guardians - More heavy action on the Over but the total remained steady early on at 8.5.  If we start seeing books tease an 8, do consider the Under here.

Cubs vs. Guardians 

Though it is a small sampling, Cubs career statistics vs. Luis Ortiz are just 3-for-20 hits. 

Ortiz allowed four runs in seven innings and took the loss against the Cardinals on Friday. Ortiz struck out 10 over six innings of scoreless baseball to pick up a win in the Guardians’ 4-2 victory over the Athletics prior to that. 

Cade Horton allowed eight hits and seven runs with four walks and two strikeouts over four innings in a rough loss against the Astros on Friday.   He allowed six runs, three earned, with two strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners before that and one can argue he is due for a strong outing in this one considering he shut out the Pirates for 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision on June 13. 

Three of the last five in this series dating back to last year did stay Under this total. 

July 2, 2025

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Monitor the Under here as this one did open at 9 at some books and the total has come in at 8.5 early on at most others.  The Over was seeing lopsided action early on. 

Landen Roupp is 6-5 with a 3.43 ERA for San Francisco. Roupp pitched well in Friday night’s victory over the White Sox, allowing just one unearned run on seven hits across his 5 1/3 frames.  Before that, he pitched six shutout innings with seven strikeouts in the Giants’ 3-2 victory over the Red Sox.

Merrill Kelly (7-4, 3.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 100 strikeouts) has pitched well against San Francisco, allowing 35 hits in 146 at bats.  Mike Yastrzemski has three homers against Kelly but is also just 9-for-43 against him overall. 

Kelly allowed five runs — three earned — over five innings with seven strikeouts in a loss to the Marlins on Friday.

This is mostly an Over series using the current total. 

Angels vs. Braves 

Most of the early action was on the Braves with a number that fell from Atlanta -140 to -119. 

The Angels are playing a bit better than the Braves of late. 

Braves career statistics vs. Yusei Kikuchi are 20-for-68 (.294) with 7 RBIs. 

Kikuchi struck out 12 and allowed only a pair of unearned runs over seven innings to earn his third win as the Angels took down the Red Sox 5-2 on Wednesday.  Before that though, he allowed five runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings and took the loss against the Orioles.

Didier Fuentes gets the start for Atlanta. 

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

According to ESPN, that would be the Astros vs. Rockies game where much of the early action is on the Under 11.  

Houston Astros pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.05 ERA in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.99 ERA in this matchup.

Only one of the last five games of this series played in Colorado has gone Over the 11. 

Houston batters are 28-for-70 vs. Austin Gomber with Christian Walker going 7-for-17 with two home runs against him. 

Some of the recreational books had the total at 11.  

Colorado has allowed five or more runs in seven of their last ten overall but Houston has only scored more than 3 runs in three of their last ten overall. 

Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (23-13-1)

• July 2 - No Picks Today 
• July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
• June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
• June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
• June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
• June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
• June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
• June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
• June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
• June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
• June 17 - No Picks Today
• June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
• June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
• June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
• June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
• June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5  (LOSS)
• June 12 - No Picks Today
• June 11 - No Picks Today
• June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
• June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
• June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
• June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
• June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
• June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
• June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
• May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
• May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
• May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
• May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
• May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
• May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
• May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
• May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
• May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
• April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
• April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
• April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
• April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
• April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)