MLB Betting Analysis - September 2, 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Monday September 1, 2025.
Tuesday September 2
- Dodgers are 6-1 vs. Pirates over their last seven games. They are just a -165 road favorite here. This line dropped a bit, making it slightly more appealing. Dodgers are winning just 60% (for them, a disappointment), but scarier still is the Pirates winning 70% of their games of late. So, no, that price will not cut it under normal circumstances. But Clayton Kershaw won all five of his August starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 28⅔ innings. He struck out only 19, but Kershaw walked just three while allowing one long ball. The veteran lefty is in a great spot to continue rolling in September with a road game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hosts sport the third-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill. Carmen Mlodzinski allowed only an unearned run over four innings Sunday in his start against the Cubs. Before that, Mlodzinksi was credited with a win against the Mets after throwing 3 2/3 scoreless innings to finish the game. The biggest change for the Pirates, according to The Action Network, was that they boosted their walk rate to 10.1%, sitting only behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They write: " I don't think the Pirates have the goods to conquer Kershaw. He doesn't walk batters, so they'll need to put the ball in play, and Kershaw loves generating soft ground balls, which the Pirates hit plenty of — posting a 45.5% ground-ball rate (third-worst in baseball in August), while ranking just 21st in hard-hit rate." in 74 starts, Kershaw has allowed 17 hits in 74 at bats (.230) but that's just against four players. ershaw allowed one run with six strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Reds on Tuesday, and one run in his prior start. We'd prefer Kershaw coming off a loss or no-decision, not to mention we'd like the price a little lower. Every top capper we like is backing the Dodgers and we will be too.
- Blue Jays vs. Reds - José Berríos allowed two runs with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Saturday. Prior to that, Berríos allowed six runs on 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. . He has not had a win in his last two starts. Nick Lodolo allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings while picking up a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. These are two hungry starters. Cincinnati Reds career statistics vs. Jose Berrios are just .169 in 59 at bats. Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Scott Barlow are just .224 in 49 at bats. We will avoid the Under here based on the Blue Jays scoring more than five runs in six of their last ten.
- Guardians vs. Red Sox - The Guardians are playing mediocre of late but Boston is performing well, winning seven of their last ten. The Red Sox are 77-62, a solid 2025 team to be certain. They've won the last three in this series. 92% or greater are backing the Red Sox but the price is over -200.
- Mariners vs. Rays - Seattle is 6-2 in their last eight games of this series. Tampa, though, is just a little hotter here recently (winning 70% compared to Seattle's 50%). It's a mixed bag with the top cappers we follow as well.
- Orioles vs. Padres - From ESPN: "Six homers in 24 August innings bloated Yu Darvish's ERA to 4.88. His 0.88 WHIP tells a different story, though he benefited from a .167 BABIP. The best indicators in small samples are strikeout and walk rates, and Darvish's 19.7% K-BB% was a respectable 29th out of the 112 pitchers compiling at least 24 innings last month. The San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been more productive lately, but for the season, they sport the fifth-worst road wOBA versus right-handers."
- Athletics vs. Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals career statistics vs. Luis Severino are just .214 against him but in a small 14 at bats sampling. Athletics activated RHP Luis Severino from the 15-day injured list after coming off a series of wins and is set to face a Cardinals team that has recorded the second-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate facing righties. The Over is seeing greater than 75% of the action at 8.5. Seven of the last nine Cardinals games have seen four or fewer runs scored by St. Louis. They've allowed a ton more, which prevents us from going with the Under here. Cappers we like are all over the A's and so are we at -108.
Monday September 1
Phillies @ Brewers
70% of the total action was on the Over early with the number sitting on 9.
Nine of the last ten games in this series has stayed Under this total.
Milwaukee has been consistently producing at the plate, scoring four or more runs in four straight games and in six of their last seven however.
Milwaukee Brewers career statistics vs. Taijuan Walker have 15 hits in 42 at bats (.357).
Walker allowed 10 hits and four runs with one walk and three strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Wednesday and has not had a win over his last couple of starts. He's a strong candidate to rebound in this one. He's capable of pitching 6 innings.
Jacob Misiorowski piled up 10 strikeouts over five innings of three-run baseball in a tough-luck no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night.
A top handicapper we follow is on the Under.
We will be on the Under 9 here
Mariners @ Rays
Greater than 81% of the action is on the Over with that number actually dropping down from 9 to 8.5. Six of the last ten in this series have stayed Under the 8.5 total.
From The Action Network:
"When the wind blows in at 5–35 mph during MLB games, fly balls lose distance and home run rates decline sharply. This betting system focuses on taking the under when totals fall between 6 and 11, capitalizing on how weather directly impacts scoring. Oddsmakers often underadjust for these conditions, creating value for bettors who understand how wind direction suppresses offense and shifts game outcomes."
Tampa Bay Rays career statistics vs. Luis Castillo are .231 in 74 at bats.
Saturday August 31
Yankees vs. White Sox -
The line movement scares us a bit here as we've seen the number drop from -190 to -169 at some books with greater than 90% of the moneyline actioin on the Yankees.
New York Yankees career statistics vs. Martin Perez are .230 in 74 at bats with four homers.
From ESPN:
Luis Gil's control has been suspect since debuting in early August, as shown by 17 walks in 24 innings. However, he has limited damage by yielding just one home run this month. The New York Yankees close August with a road date against the Chicago White Sox. Gil faces a lineup with the seventh-lowest walk rate for the past month, so free passes might not be as much of an issue.
The total has come down from 9 to 8.5 even with more than 70% backing the Over.
Angels vs. Astros -
Very lopsided action going Houston's way here yet the line has dropped from -180 to -158, leading one to ponder whether to back the Angels.
Houston Astros career statistics vs. Jose Soriano are .269 in 26 at bats though.
Rangers vs. Athletics
Texas dropped from -151 to -136 even though they were seeing solid action vs. the Athletics.
Texas Rangers career statistics vs. J.T. Ginn have been solid, going .387 (12 for 31 at bats).
Three of the last five games Ginn has started in have seen 9 or fewer runs scored.
Athletics career statistics vs. Jacob deGrom are 11-for-52 hitting (.211).
8 of the last 10 in this series have stayed Under the 9.5.
deGrom allowed two runs on three hits in five innings in a loss to the Angels on Monday and he had a no-decision in his prior start, so expect deGrom to be at his best (at least in theory).
We do like The Action Network's analysis of this game and the Under:
This system targets unders in regular season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers — low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP — are on the mound in games three or four of a series.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and winds remain neutral, which appears to be the situation in today's matchup between the Rangers and Athletics.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
Texas has won eight of their last ten games overall but the A's are 6-4 over this span as well.
The Rangers are scoring a lot of runs of late.
One of the hottest baseball cappers we follow is on the Over here.
Marlins vs. Mets -
Sandy Alcantara delivered another strong performance in a no-decision against the Braves on Tuesday night, striking out seven batters over seven innings of two-run baseball.
He has a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP spanning his last seven starts, with 40 strikeouts over his past 44 innings.
Alcantara has tossed seven innings four times in his previous seven efforts.
We should note the Mets have performed well against right-handed pitchers of late.
Miami Marlins career statistics vs. Kodai Senga are just 3-for-21.
Kodai Senga allowed three runs in four-plus innings Monday against the Phillies.
Only three of the last nine games in this series have stayed Under 8, the current total.
Braves vs. Phillies -
Atlanta Braves career statistics vs. Jesus Luzardo have 3 home runs and 13 RBIs in 113 at bats (.239)
Luzardo surrendered four runs in four-plus innings Tuesday against the Mets. He limited the Marlins to just one run in his prior start.
Hurston Waldrep is 4-0 with an 0.90 ERA coming into this one.
Philadelphia is 5-1 in the last six games of this series. They have won six of their last ten while Atlanta has won just four over that span.
Friday August 29
Cardinals vs. Reds
A little surprised this one hasn't shot up more with over 75% of the action on Cincinnati.
St. Louis has actually dominated this series, going 6-3 over the last nine meetings. They've won half of their last ten games while the Reds have won four of their last ten.
Matthew Liberatore has allowed just one home run in 46 at bats versus these Reds.
Liberatore surrendered four runs in 4 1/3 innings Sunday in a loss to the Rays. He gave up three runs in his prior start, not factoring into the decision.
Braves vs. Phillies
Philadelphia is 6-3 in the last nine games versus Atlanta. Action is heavy on the Phillies with the line moving from -165 to -180. That latter number is our high point in making picks so the value is limited here.
Marlins vs. Mets
This one really stands out as the total went from 8.5 to 7.5 with all the action on the Over.
From ESPN:
Eury Perez snapped out of a mini rut in his last outing, recording a quality start in a win against the Toronto Blue Jays. Next up for the Miami Marlins righty is a road date in Citi Field against the New York Mets. It isn't an ideal matchup since the Mets have been productive facing right-handed pitching, but Perez's ability to limit traffic on the bases and keep the ball in the yard puts him in play.
The Mets selected the contract of RHP Jonah Tong from Triple-A Syracuse and he will be starting for them on Friday.
Half of the last ten in this series have stayed Under the 7.5. There are concerns that the Marlins bullpen may not be entirely well rested. The Marlins gave up 12 and 11 runs, respectively, over a two-day period this past weekend, and the Mets have been scoring runs.
We do like that top handicappers we follow are backing the Under here.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (45-36-2)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 ()
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 ()
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
