MLB Betting Analysis - September 4 2025
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in MLB betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Thursday September 4, 2025.
Thursday September 4
Here are your hot streaking MLB teams at the moment:
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Texas Rangers
- San Francisco Giants
Teams to avoid at the moment that were looking decent at one point:
- Detroit Tigers
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Cincinnati Reds
- San Diego Padres
Series Edge
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago White Sox
White Sox vs. Twins
The Chicago White Sox offer some solid value having won their last five games against a Twins team that is having issues right now. The White Sox just happen to be playing pretty well of late also.
It's a little odd that the total dropped from 9 to 8.5 with heavy lopsided early action on the Over.
Guardians vs. Red Sox
The Guardians have struggled facing right-handed pitching, sporting the lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate.
Cleveland Guardians career statistics vs. Ryan Pepiot are .267 in 30 appearances (2 HRs and 2 RBIS along with 8 hits).
Pepiot tossed five shutout innings with six strikeouts in a win over the Nationals on Saturday. He allowed just one run in his prior start.
Tampa is suddenly one of the hottest teams right now. They've won nine of their last eleven.
Cleveland is 6-12 in their last eighteen games.
Logan Allen allowed four runs in six innings and got a no-decision in the Guardians’ 5-4 victory over the Mariners on Friday. He was lit up for nine runs in his prior start.
Tampa has scored six or more runs in five of their last six games overall. Cleveland has permitted five or more runs in four of their last ten. The total came in at 8.5 with greater than 79% backing the Over.
Most of the action was on the Rays with a line sticking on the -155.
Tampa is an attractive play here at -160
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Pittsburgh has won six of their last ten games.
Though this series has mostly been an Over event in recent meetings, two of the top pitchers start this day.
Blake Snell allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a loss Friday to the Diamondbacks.
Pittsburgh Pirates career statistics vs. Blake Snell are just .193 in 57 at bats that includes just two RBIs.
Paul Skenes allowed two runs (one earned) in six innings and got the win in the Pirates’ 4-2 victory over the Red Sox on Friday.
Los Angeles Dodgers career statistics vs. Skenes are .265 in 49 at bats, which makes the 7 total a tough pill to swallow.
Wednesday September 3
Here are your hot streaking MLB teams at the moment:
New York Yankees- Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays- Texas Rangers
- San Francisco Giants
Teams to avoid at the moment that were looking decent at one point:
- Detroit Tigers
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Cincinnati Reds
- San Diego Padres
Series Edge
New York Mets- Boston Red Sox
- Chicago Cubs
- New York Yankees
- San Francisco Giants
Closer Look
While the Rays have been hot of late, and the Mariners not so much, the Rays batters vs. George Kirby are just .111 in 27 at bats.
From ESPN:
Cade Horton is 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP since the break. The key is allowing just two homers over those 42 innings, but he's also sporting a 23.8% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate in that span, both better than league average. The Chicago Cubs host the Atlanta Braves and an offense faring much better at home.
Chicago Cubs career statistics vs. Bryce Elder are just .167 in a limited sampling of 24 at bats.
Five of the last ten in this series have stayed Under the current total of 8.5. The Braves have scored three or fewer runs in half of their last ten and should continue that trend facing Horton. Six of the last nine games have seen Chicago score four or fewer runs.
From The Action Network:
Weather Watch Unders is a system built for MLB totals bettors who understand how environmental factors quietly shift run production.
This approach keys in on games with moderate to strong winds, especially those blowing in or cross-field, paired with mild-to-cool temperatures, a known recipe for stifled fly balls and reduced scoring.
When totals open high, but tick down before first pitch, it signals sharp money reacting to these same weather cues, which appears to be the case entering tonight's matchup between the Cubs and Braves.
Clay Holmes may be showing signs he's hitting the wall in his first season as a full-time starter. Over the past three seasons, he averaged 63 innings as a reliever for the New York Yankees. This year, he hasn't missed a start for the New York Mets, compiling a career-high 142 1/3 innings. Over his past four outings, Holmes posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but more worrisome is only 14 strikeouts with nine walks. Holmes draws a road start against a dangerous Detroit Tigers lineup, so it's best to avoid him.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks - Jack Leiter has limited experience versus the Diamondbacks but Texas Rangers career statistics vs. Zac Gallen are .165 in 97 at bats. He's been pitching outstanding of late. The Diamondbacks have been playing decent of late but we would not bet against the Rangers at the moment.
The Under might be enticing with Gallen at the mound, but The Action Network suggests otherwise:
According to Evan Abrams’ “Late Season Overs, Lower Totals” system, games in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments like Arizona tend to go over the total when set at 10.5 or less late in the year. Factors like dry desert air, deeper bullpens stretched by expanded rosters, and market underestimation of run environments in August through October all contribute to higher scoring.
With the Rangers’ lineup still capable of piling up runs and the Diamondbacks’ offense comfortable in Chase Field, this spot lines up well for another game to push past its number.
Guardians vs. Red Sox
The Guardians have been stumbling and fumbling while Boston continues to roll, not to mention the Red Sox have won the last four games against Cleveland.
Cleveland Guardians career statistics vs. Brennan Bernardino are just .126 in a limited 16 at bats. Stats are limited here.
Yankees vs. Astros
New York Yankees career statistics vs. Jason Alexander are just .115 in 26 at bats while we have limited info related to the Yankees starter facing Houston on this day.
Blue Jays vs. Reds
Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Zack Littell are .317 with 12 RBIs in 82 at bats. Bo Bichette is 5-for-11 vs. Littell while George Springer is 0-for-10 against him.
Tuesday September 2
- Dodgers are 6-1 vs. Pirates over their last seven games. They are just a -165 road favorite here. This line dropped a bit, making it slightly more appealing. Dodgers are winning just 60% (for them, a disappointment), but scarier still is the Pirates winning 70% of their games of late. So, no, that price will not cut it under normal circumstances. But Clayton Kershaw won all five of his August starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 28⅔ innings. He struck out only 19, but Kershaw walked just three while allowing one long ball. The veteran lefty is in a great spot to continue rolling in September with a road game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hosts sport the third-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill. Carmen Mlodzinski allowed only an unearned run over four innings Sunday in his start against the Cubs. Before that, Mlodzinksi was credited with a win against the Mets after throwing 3 2/3 scoreless innings to finish the game. The biggest change for the Pirates, according to The Action Network, was that they boosted their walk rate to 10.1%, sitting only behind the Yankees and Dodgers. They write: " I don't think the Pirates have the goods to conquer Kershaw. He doesn't walk batters, so they'll need to put the ball in play, and Kershaw loves generating soft ground balls, which the Pirates hit plenty of — posting a 45.5% ground-ball rate (third-worst in baseball in August), while ranking just 21st in hard-hit rate." in 74 starts, Kershaw has allowed 17 hits in 74 at bats (.230) but that's just against four players. ershaw allowed one run with six strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Reds on Tuesday, and one run in his prior start. We'd prefer Kershaw coming off a loss or no-decision, not to mention we'd like the price a little lower. Every top capper we like is backing the Dodgers and we will be too.
- Blue Jays vs. Reds - José Berríos allowed two runs with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Saturday. Prior to that, Berríos allowed six runs on 10 hits in 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. . He has not had a win in his last two starts. Nick Lodolo allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings while picking up a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. These are two hungry starters. Cincinnati Reds career statistics vs. Jose Berrios are just .169 in 59 at bats. Toronto Blue Jays career statistics vs. Scott Barlow are just .224 in 49 at bats. We will avoid the Under here based on the Blue Jays scoring more than five runs in six of their last ten.
- Guardians vs. Red Sox - The Guardians are playing mediocre of late but Boston is performing well, winning seven of their last ten. The Red Sox are 77-62, a solid 2025 team to be certain. They've won the last three in this series. 92% or greater are backing the Red Sox but the price is over -200.
- Mariners vs. Rays - Seattle is 6-2 in their last eight games of this series. Tampa, though, is just a little hotter here recently (winning 70% compared to Seattle's 50%). It's a mixed bag with the top cappers we follow as well.
- Orioles vs. Padres - From ESPN: "Six homers in 24 August innings bloated Yu Darvish's ERA to 4.88. His 0.88 WHIP tells a different story, though he benefited from a .167 BABIP. The best indicators in small samples are strikeout and walk rates, and Darvish's 19.7% K-BB% was a respectable 29th out of the 112 pitchers compiling at least 24 innings last month. The San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have been more productive lately, but for the season, they sport the fifth-worst road wOBA versus right-handers."
- Athletics vs. Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals career statistics vs. Luis Severino are just .214 against him but in a small 14 at bats sampling. Athletics activated RHP Luis Severino from the 15-day injured list after coming off a series of wins and is set to face a Cardinals team that has recorded the second-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate facing righties. The Over is seeing greater than 75% of the action at 8.5. Seven of the last nine Cardinals games have seen four or fewer runs scored by St. Louis. They've allowed a ton more, which prevents us from going with the Under here. Cappers we like are all over the A's and so are we at -108.
Monday September 1
Phillies @ Brewers
70% of the total action was on the Over early with the number sitting on 9.
Nine of the last ten games in this series has stayed Under this total.
Milwaukee has been consistently producing at the plate, scoring four or more runs in four straight games and in six of their last seven however.
Milwaukee Brewers career statistics vs. Taijuan Walker have 15 hits in 42 at bats (.357).
Walker allowed 10 hits and four runs with one walk and three strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Wednesday and has not had a win over his last couple of starts. He's a strong candidate to rebound in this one. He's capable of pitching 6 innings.
Jacob Misiorowski piled up 10 strikeouts over five innings of three-run baseball in a tough-luck no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night.
A top handicapper we follow is on the Under.
We will be on the Under 9 here
Mariners @ Rays
Greater than 81% of the action is on the Over with that number actually dropping down from 9 to 8.5. Six of the last ten in this series have stayed Under the 8.5 total.
From The Action Network:
"When the wind blows in at 5–35 mph during MLB games, fly balls lose distance and home run rates decline sharply. This betting system focuses on taking the under when totals fall between 6 and 11, capitalizing on how weather directly impacts scoring. Oddsmakers often underadjust for these conditions, creating value for bettors who understand how wind direction suppresses offense and shifts game outcomes."
Tampa Bay Rays career statistics vs. Luis Castillo are .231 in 74 at bats.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (46-38-2)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 ()
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com
