NFL Wild-Card Cleveland at Houston Betting Preview

First of a half-dozen NFL wild-card playoff games takes place in Houston, where the 11-6 Cleveland Browns draw the 10-7 (AFC South champion) Texans Saturday afternoon. Houston was 3-13 a season ago.

Cleveland last earned a postseason berth in 2020, Houston hadn’t qualified since 2019. Among the many storylines are the quarterbacks, as the Browns have thrived with 16-year-old veteran Joe Flacco, while the Texans have ridden rookie C.J. Stroud.

Of course, this isn’t quite the Deshaun Watson homecoming, as the former Texan/current Brown suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in mid-November.  

Cleveland is a three-point road favorite (total at 44½), according to NFL odds.

Moneyline is Browns -145, Texans at +125.

It’s the 15th meeting between the teams (series tied, 7-7, with Browns winning last four).

Browns’ “D”-awg Pound

The Cleveland Browns, winners of four in a row before a meaningless loss to the Bengals at Cincinnati in the final game, are in this position in large part because of their defense. Cleveland ended the regular season surrendering a league-best 270.2 yards per game, including a to-ranked 164.7 passing yards/game (49 sacks as well).

As was mentioned, quarterback Joe Flacco led the surge, 1,616 passing yards (13 touchdowns, eight interceptions), four consecutive 300-yard games to end his regular season (did not play in the final game).

Some injury issues of more than passing concern. Standout wide receiver Amari Cooper (heel) did not practice Tuesday, while the reliable kicker Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) may not play. Cooper (72 receptions, 1,250 yards, five touchdowns) and Hopkins (team-leading 123 points) have been major contributors throughout the season.   

While losing elite runner Nick Chubb to a season-ending knee injury in the second week, Jerome Ford (813 yards, four touchdowns) has been serviceable. He’s not Chubb, however, thus the Browns have turned to the air with Flacco.

Stroud and Crowd

Both the home crowd and rookie phenom quarterback C.J. Stroud figure to be prominent with the Houston Texans. The second selection in the latest draft, Stroud ended the regular season with 4,108 passing yards (23 touchdowns, five interceptions). Stroud had a half-dozen touchdown passes without a pick in his last five.

Among his favorite targets is Nico Collins (80 receptions, 1,297 yards, eight touchdowns), while former Buffalo Bill rusher Devin Singlegtary had a career-best 898 yards (four touchdowns).

Having surrendered 20.8 points/game (11th in NFL), Houston was about four points/game stingier than a season ago.

Take the Visitors

Cleveland is 33-1 (+3300) to win it all, Houston at 40-1 (+4000), as per Super Bowl LVIII odds.

Both Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland) and Demeco Ryans (Houston) have overseen tremendous turnarounds this season, the latter in his first season with his team.

Flacco is a proven commodity in the postseason (record of 10-5, 7-5 on road) with a Super Bowl win on his resume. That may prove the difference, as we expect the Cleveland Browns to win (and cover) while advancing the divisional round.