NFL Betting Analysis September 15, 2025 - Monday Night Football Doubleheader
Gambling911.com looks at potential value in NFL betting lines and totals based on a number of factors for games played Monday September 15, 2025.
Monday September 15 (Doubleheader)
Buccaneers vs. Texans
Model Edge - The line had moved from Houston -2 to -2.5 with a very slight overlay, though this one was mostly on the money as we arrived at a line of 1.78 or 2. The favorite has covered at a 68% clip when the line is 2.5/3 with an accurate line. Slight edge: Texans
Fade the Public - The public liked Tampa at a 64% clip. Despite this, the line has moved up from -2 to -2.5. Money bets were more balanced for this game. Slight edge: Texans
Top Cappers - Some of the better cappers we follow were on Houston. Strong Edge: Texans
Expert Sports Handicapping Sites -
From Winners and Whiners:
"This is as good a buy-low, sell-high line as you will find all weekend. Houston only needs to win by a field goal here and will be highly motivated as they need to avoid an 0-2 start. Houston only scored nine points in their opener, but will now be making their home opener and will have a different offensive plan that will cover this small number. The Texans will target Nico Collins more, as the young star receiver will not have another outing where he finishes with just one catch. Nick Chubb will be more comfortable with the offense after running behind his new line for the first time last week. Tampa Bay needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Falcons, they will fall here as both teams go to 1-1."
They say take the Texans to cover.
From The Action Network:
I think Houston upgraded significantly at offensive coordinator with Nick Caley over Bobby Slowik, and you should see some of those dividends pay off tonight with more certainty along the offensive line at home against a vulnerable defense.
I trust C.J. Stroud to make enough plays and the Texans defense to shut down a shorthanded Bucs offense to cover anything under a field goal in a lower-scoring affair.
Sell high on the lucky Bucs and buy low on the Texans.
We say take the Texans here -2.5
With the total dropping from 43.5 to 42.5 and everyone on the Over, something else to keep in mind with the Under deserving strong consideration.
Chargers vs. Raiders
Model Edge - The line has moved from LA -3 to -3.5. We have Vegas favored at -1.5. Edge: Raiders
Fade the Public - The public was backing LA at a 67% clip and the line was moving accordingly. Edge: Raiders
Top Cappers - They were all over Las Vegas - Strong Edge: Raiders
From The Action Network:
The environment in Vegas may not be conducive to a strong home-field advantage for the Raiders, but it has mattered in this specific rivalry.
The Chargers are just 2-3 straight up when playing Las Vegas on the road, and one of those wins came in overtime by three points.
Sunday September 14 (Late Games)
Panthers vs. Cardinals
The line on this game has moved from Arizona -6.5 to -7 over the course of the past week. The number opened as low as -4.5 at some books.
We get a number of Arizona -6.5, indicating an accurate line here.
Action was very lopsided in favor of Arizona.
Winners and Whiners likes Arizona while most of the cappers we follow were more split.
The Cardinals didn’t put up big numbers in their first game, but they played well offensively with a balanced attack. The Panthers did a good job defending the pass in their first game, but they were gashed on the ground, with the Jaguars racking up 200 yards, so expect the Cardinals to follow a similar game plan and keep the ball on the ground until the Panthers prove they can stop them from running against them, which I don't expect to happen.
Carolina’s offense didn’t do much in their first game. They were unable to get anything going through the air, but they averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals did a good job against the run in their first game and bottled up Alvin Kamara, who finished with less than 50 rushing yards. So expect the Cardinals to stack the box and keep pressure on Young all day long, forcing him into costly mistakes, so expect them to have a hard time keeping up with the Cardinals. Go with Arizona to cover the spread.
Both the Broncos and Eagles were favored in their respective games and seeing more backing, but as -1 point favorites.
The Broncos headed into Indianapolis, a team that destroyed Miami last week, while KC was a rare home underdog hosting Philadelphia.
Falcons vs. Vikings (night game)
Minnesota has dropped from a -4 point to -3 point favorite. Some books were still holding at -3.5. The public generally liked Atlanta here.
We get a number of Vikings -7.5.
Cappers were in consensus over the Falcons while the betting public also liked Atlanta on the spread.
The Action Network is one of the sites we follow that is all over Atlanta here as well.
According to our ActionLabs data, Week 2 underdogs +6 or less coming off an ATS loss in Week 1 are 66-40-3 (62.3%) ATS since 2005 for a 20.8% ROI.
Week 2 'dogs +6 or less coming off a straight-up loss have been even better, posting a 73-42-3 (63.5%) ATS mark and a 23.5% ROI over the past two decades.
J.J. McCarthy was impressive late in last week's comeback win against the Bears, but he's even greener than Penix and has only one quarter of good football to his name. Though McCarthy gets to play at home this week, this is now his second straight primetime game to open his career, and he's making his first career start on short rest.
Home favorites in primetime have struggled on short rest.
Per our ActionLabs data, backing the road 'dog in this spot has resulted in a 49-24-3 (67.1%) ATS record since 2003 with a 29.5% ROI.
Pick: Falcons +3.5
We will be jumping on Atlanta at +3.5 based solely on the top capper consensus. Books will do great if Minnesota covers here but do keep in mind the line is responding to the action coming in.
Sunday September 14 (Early Games)
Jaguars vs. Bengals -
Cincinnati was a -3.5 favorite at home dropping to -3.
We get a line of Cincinnati -6, which is where this one initially opened at the start of the season at some books that offered an early line.
Bills vs. Jets -
The Bills opened at -7 and that number has dropped to -6.
We got a number of 7, indicating this was on the money and we now have a bit of an underlay.
The line has dropped from -8 to -6 with heavy lopsided action on Buffalo.
Lions vs. Bears
The Lions line moved from -4.5 to -6.5.
We get a number of Lions-7.
Seahawks vs. Steelers
The Pittsburgh line moved from -2.5 to -3.
We get a line of 4.5, indicating an underlay.
Underlays in the 2.5/3 range tend to favor the favorite at an 83% clip using our model.
Winners and Whiners offered this:
"Seattle’s offense looked rather flat in their opener as outside of Smith-Njigba, no one stood out on that side of the ball. Having two key members of the secondary likely to miss the game is a big blow, especially given the fact that Rodgers tossed four touchdown passes last week against the Jets. Pittsburgh’s defense should get back up to speed and a 10 am PT start might take a toll on Seattle’s internal clocks. Metcalf is facing his old team so he'll want to leave an impression. The weather should be decent as game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s with winds around five miles an hour. That’s enough to give the hosts the upper hand in this contest."
We will be on the Steelers -3 here
49ers vs. Saints
The line has dropped from San Francisco -6.5 to -3.
We get San Francisco -5.5, suggesting this one was mostly on the money and we now have an underlay.
Thursday September 11
The consensus among cappers is that the Packers pull off the cover. Nearly all are on Green Bay.
Action is about 60% backing for Green Bay on the spread.
Winners and Whiners offered this:
"Both teams picked up victories in their season opener, though the level of competition was vastly different. Washington outgained the Giants by nearly a 2 to 1 margin but managed to put just 21 points on the board in the win. Green Bay looked dominant as they took down a Detroit team that had the best record in the NFC last season. The addition of Parsons bolstered the Green Bay pass rush as they sacked Jared Goff four times, recorded nine QB hits and nine tackles for loss. Washington’s offensive line did have some issues keeping the Giants’ pass rush in check. The Packers are at home and as long as their injury issues aren’t too serious, they should take care of business here."
We detected a 1-point overlay when the number was Packers -4. That number has since dropped to -3 or -3.5.
The Action Network is one of the few sites backing Washington, and they are pretty good much of the time.
The total of 48.5 feels a touch high, but with both offenses looking closer to midseason form than Week 1 rust, it’s not crazy.
The value here is taking Washington +3.5, but only if the number sticks.
Daniels will regress from some of last year’s unsustainable stats, but his rushing upside and decision-making paired with new additions like Tunsil, Deebo and Bill Croskey-Merritt keep this offense dangerous.
Meanwhile, Green Bay is banged up on offense and Parsons isn’t at full strength yet. The market is probably too high on the Packers right now, as they will likely be closer to their true peak once their WRs and Parsons are closer to full health.
The Commanders are catching them at a time.
Pick: Commanders +3.5
It's a slight overlay but do take the Commanders +3.5 here.
Sunday September 7 (Late)
Betting Volume Saturday Evening (Kalshi) - As of Sunday AM
Titans vs. Broncos - $801,000
This one featured a line of Denver -9 with greater than 83% of the spread action on Denver early.
Texans vs. Rams - $779,000
Lions vs. Packers - $776,000
This one dropped from Green Bay -2.5 to -1 with greater than 65% of the spread action on Detroit.
The -1 number is more accurate and exactly what we get whereas the -2.5 presented us with a bit of an overlay.
Our model has accurate lines in the 2.5/3 range seeing the favorite win at a 70% clip, however, the model doesn't really account for the -1 line that has been dominant throughout the week.
49ers vs. Seahawks - $675,000
The line on this game came in at 49ers -1.
Ravens vs. Bills - $558,000
This game will see much heavier action as we inch closer to the starting time.
The steady line had Baltimore as a -1 point favorite.
Sunday September 7 (Early)
Betting Volume Saturday Evening (Kalshi)
Dolphins vs. Colts - $1 million
Indianapolis has been a -1.5 favorite with that number dropping to a PICK'EM by Saturday evening. 78% of the backing was on Miami in this game even at even odds.
Cardinals vs. Saints - $891,000
Action was greater than 88 percent on Arizona as a -6.5 favorite. The number has not moved all week.
Steelers vs. Jets - $688,000
The Steelers line has sat at -2.5 all week with lopsided action coming their way. This number we've determined to be on the money, which bodes well for Pittsburgh as our model has the favorite going 70% with an accurate number that sits just below the 3.
From Winners and Whiners:
The Steelers will come into this game with swagger. Their starting quarterback will look for revenge of his old team in the Jets. The Steelers have always found ways to win close games, especially with head coach Mike Tomlin leading the way. Last season, the Steelers were 5-3 against the spread as favorites. They may not have the most dynamic offense, especially if Rogers cannot throw the ball deep this season, but they do return one of the top defenses led by T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh’s defense will be able to shut down a revamped Jets offense with new quarterback Justin Fields and a new head coach. There are too many new things happening with the Jets for them to contend against a Steelers team that is the epitome of consistency over the course of the past decade. In a super low scoring game, I’m taking the Steelers thanks to defensive turnovers and strong special teams play.
Bengals vs. Browns - $595,000
Cincinnati is a -5 point favorite against Cleveland.
Giants vs. Commanders - $469,000
Washington comes into this game as a -6 point favorite vs. the Giants.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons $456,000
The Falcons come into this game as a -1 point favorite.
Atlanta is a top capper consensus play on this day.
Raiders vs. Patriots - $332,000
The line on this one moved from New England -3 to -2.5.
This number appears to be accurate.
Our model has the favorite going 70% with an accurate number that sits just below the 3.
Panthers vs. Jaguars - $256,000
The number here moved from Jaguars -2.5 to -3.5 over the course of this week.
Friday September 5
The Chiefs-Chargers game will be played in Brazil and, as such, will not incorporate any home field advantage.
Our number here comes out to 5.44 or Chiefs -5.5.
The action number was listed at Chiefs -3.
Our model sampling has a limited number of flat/steady 3-point lines (this one hasn't moved in weeks) where there is an underlay and the favorite has covered in each of these (9-0).
As with most lines where the number comes in at 3 with little to no movement, action is steady.
The Chiefs have won the last seven in this series while either failing to cover or pushing in three of those using the current spread. Another went into OT but KC ultimately covered with a six-point victory.
It would be a disservice not to back Kansas City here at -3.
Thursday September 4
This one could get real ugly real fast if the initial power ratings hold up.
We detect an underlay of as much as 7 points.
Interestingly, our model sampling has the underdog going 10-4 where there is an underlay or a line on the money with the number 7 to 7.5.
This underlay is a little too large for our comfort zone.
Winners and Whiners had this to offer:
Divisional games are usually entertaining and tend to be a bit chippy. This one is likely to be no different, especially after the Eagles won both meetings last season by a combined 75-13 margin. Dallas is trying to rebuild on the fly and fixing a defense that was second-worst in the league in scoring defense is going to be a challenge after dealing Parsons away. The Cowboys couldn’t slow the Eagles a season ago and with question marks on both sides of the ball, it’s tough to like their chances here. Look for Philadelphia to take care of business and roll to a victory here, starting their title defense off on the right foot.
It's tempting to fade the big public favorite here, the Eagles, but we have more reason to worry about Dallas, per The Action Network:
Jalen Hurts now has his full arsenal of weapons healthy. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert were on the field together for only 18% of Hurts' dropbacks last season.
Factor in Saquon Barkley, who posted 2,005 rushing yards in his first year with the team — running behind one of the best offensive lines in football — and this attack is as dangerous as it gets. The “tush push” wasn’t banned either, which means Philadelphia still has the league’s most unstoppable short-yardage play.
The real storyline is obvious: the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Packers.
Our model likes Dallas but doesn't necessarily take into account significant underlays like what we have here, nor is this one of the most convincing model outputs.
Oddsmakers have reacted to the action coming in on Philadelphia by moving the line off the 7 to 8.5.
Most of the top handicappers we are on are backing the Eagles here.
Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (53-47-2)
September 15 - LA Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders - Raiders +3.5 ()
September. 15 - Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Houston Texans - Texans -2.5 ()
September 14 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings - Falcons +3.5 (WIN)
September 14 - Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets - Jets +6.5 (LOSS
September 14 - Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -3 (LOSS)
September 13 - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame -6.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 (WIN)
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 (WIN)
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks
August 12 - No Picks
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today
July 26 - No Picks Today
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN)
July 10 - No Picks Today
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
