Bills vs. Lions Betting Preview December 15

The Bills-Lions line has moved from -2.5 down to -1 overnight on Friday.

Line Analysis

Sagarin gives us a number of Bills 3.12, suggesting an underlay.   It's the Bills seeing better than 62% of the action here.

Comparables

Underlays in this range tend to bode well for the favorite.

• New York Giants +3 to +1.5 Las Vegas (Las Vegas 2.48 On The Money to 1 point Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
• TCU +2.5 to +1 Kansas (Kansas 5.41 Underlay) - Road dog covers.
• South Carolina +2.5 to +1.5 Oklahoma (Oklahoma 5.88 Big Underlay) - Road dog covers.

This line move from +2.5 to +1 appears to mostly go against the trend of favorites covering.

Bills Player to Watch

Josh Allen. In his seventh season, he’s making a strong case to be NFL MVP with 10 TDs in the past two games. Last week, Allen became the league’s first player to throw three TD passes and score three times rushing. Two weeks ago, he became the NFL’s first quarterback to be credited with two scores on one play — a TD passing and one receiving — in completing a pass to Amari Cooper and scoring when the WR tossed the ball back to the QB.

Lions Player to Watch

Jared Goff. With a banged-up defense, the Lions are going to have to keep up with the Allen-led Bills. Goff has completed 72.4% of his passes, ranking second in the NFL. If he completes three-fourths of his passes in one more game, he will join Tom Brady (2007) as the only players in league history to connect on 75% of passes in eight or more games. In Detroit’s past five home games, Goff has thrown 14 TDs and only one INT since throwing two INTs without a TD in the team’s only loss to Tampa Bay in Week 2.

Buffalo’s passing game against Detroit’s secondary. Allen has been nearly unstoppable and the Lions have struggled to stop many teams from gaining a lot of yards with passes and penalties for pass interference.

Key Matchup

Buffalo’s passing game against Detroit’s secondary. Allen has been nearly unstoppable and the Lions have struggled to stop many teams from gaining a lot of yards with passes and penalties for pass interference.