Broncos vs. Bills Betting Preview - Playoffs January 12
The Buffalo Bills open their post season game against the Denver Broncos as a -9 point home favorite. This line has occasionally shifted to the -9.5.
The key matchup here will likely be the Bills O-line vs. Broncos D-line. Allen’s elusiveness combined with a line that’s featured the same five starters for all but two games this season led to Buffalo allowing a league-low 14 sacks — the fewest since Indianapolis allowed 13 in 2009. Meantime, the Broncos led the NFL with a single-season best 63 sacks, including 12 over their final two outings.
Below we have your full Broncos-Bills preview including some of the many props available from the top PPH software platforms.
7 Features of AcePerHead.com Football Betting Software
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Bo Nix Player Prop Bets
Broncos QB Bo Nix total passing yards for this game has been set at 226.5.
The sixth quarterback taken in the NFL draft last April threw for 29 touchdowns, two shy of Justin Herbert’s rookie record. He was the AFC’s Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against Kansas City in Week 18 when he led the Broncos into the playoffs with a 38-0 wipeout of the Chiefs’ backups. He set franchise records for completion rate (89.7 percent) and most completions to start a game (18). His 18 completions to start the game were the most ever in the NFL by a rookie quarterback.
Nix completed 26-of-29 passes for 321 passing yards and four touchdowns and rushed seven times for 47 yards in the Broncos’ 38-0, Week 18 win over the Chiefs.
Prior to that he completed 24-of-31 passes for 219 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the Broncos 30-24, Week 17 overtime loss to the Bengals, adding 31 yards on seven carries.
NBC Edge wrote of Nix following the game against KC:
"Nix looked like the most elusive player on the field at times, playing with a carefree flare. A forward pass penalty negated a would-be 49-yard gain that included a lateral to Javonte Williams, though Nix still banked 27 rushing yards on the play. Courtland Sutton needed 82 receiving yards to activate a half-million-dollar bonus so Nix flung him a team-high seven targets en route to five receptions for 98 yards and one touchdown. Nix proved himself as a high-upside fantasy QB1 this season and he can be treated as such against the Bills for playoff fantasy purposes next week."
Nix says that the 10-7 Broncos, who come into the playoffs on a 4-game win streak, are "growing something special".
“I think it was individually a little different for guys,” Nix said on Jan. 5. “Preseason and OTAs, coach emphasized, we’ve got to trust and believe what he already believes and knows. That was that we could be a playoff team, and we could be a 10-win team and compete against good teams in this league. Eventually, I think the buy-in, we just figured it out.
“We won a few games. We started playing really good and when we’ve come up a little short on a few games — we feel like we’re right there. You can point to a few plays that change the game. The guys know it. The guys in the locker room, they know it. They just compete. They compete at a high level. The last couple of weeks hurt us, and we didn’t take it very well. We just wanted to get back out on the field. That’s a sign of a team that’s growing something special.”
Josh Allen Player Prop Bets
The seventh-year starter is 4-0 in his past four wild-card playoff outings, all at home, and has gone a combined 91 of 129 for 1,187 yards with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s also gained 214 yards rushing with two scores. Allen is coming off a season in which he’s thrown a career-low six interceptions, down from a career-high 18 last season.
Allen was removed from Week 18 against the Patriots after one play. Prior to that he completed 16-of-27 passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns before leaving in the fourth quarter in Buffalo’s 40-14, Week 17 win over the Jets, adding five carries for 17 yards and a touchdown.
Allen's fellow players believe he should be the league's MVP.
From Fox Sports:
In speaking to nine different Bills players, every single one of them had a different MVP moment from 2024. Actually, safety Damar Hamlin didn't bother pointing to any single moment.
"Every f---ing day. Every Sunday. Every f---ing Sunday. Like, it's no specific moment. It's every f---ing Sunday he gets out there, lines up and proves it. Just turn the tape on," Hamlin told FOX Sports.
Line Analysis, Comparables, Betting Action and Top Handicapping Predictions
Sagarin comes up with a line of 5.9 Buffalo (-6). The -9 and -9.5 is a pretty significant overlay.
Sagarin does not take into account recent injuries however.
The Broncos are as healthy as they’ve been all season with no starter or key backup nursing an injury.
Bills returner Brandon Codrington injured his hamstring on Sunday and is questionable to play. Otherwise, Buffalo is at the healthiest it’s been all season.
As you can plainly see, there are no injuries of any significance to consider when handicapping this line.
Action was 75% Broncos with oddsmakers not holding at the 9.5. In fact, the trend has been to hold at Bills -9 despite the action coming their way on the spread.
We most recently witnessed a similar trend with the Bucs +9.5/+9 Chiefs with the exact same size overlay of 3 points and the same action of 75 percent coming in on Kansas City. The Bucs would go on to lose but covered within this 9 point spread (24-30).
Top cappers are backing the Broncos early.
Before You Bet
- The Broncos beat the Bills by two points last season.
- Buffalo is second in the NFL in scoring to only the Lions.
- The Bills won by 14 last year in the Wild Card Round.
- Buffalo have covered this spread in four of their last ten games though the last three were against teams with losing records.
Head to Head Player Prop Bets
Most Receiving Yards: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
+131
-200
Most Receiving Yards: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
+202
-334
Most Receiving Yards: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
+325
-626
Most Receiving Yards: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Dawson Knox (BUF)
+110
-167
Most Receiving Yards: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Khalil Shakir (BUF)
+550
-1667
Most Receptions: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
+100
-143
Most Receptions: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
+167
-251
Most Receptions: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
+540
-1429
Most Receptions: Adam Trautman (DEN) vs Dawson Knox (BUF)
-113
-129
Most Rushing Yards: Audric Estime (DEN) vs Ty Johnson (BUF)
-251
+159
Most Rushing Yards: Audric Estime (DEN) vs Ray Davis (BUF)
-130
-115
Most Rushing Yards: Audric Estime (DEN) vs James Cook (BUF)
+334
-667
Most Pass Completions: Bo Nix (DEN) vs Josh Allen (BUF)
-157
+108
Most Passing TDs: Bo Nix (DEN) vs Josh Allen (BUF)
+116
-170
Most Passing Yards: Bo Nix (DEN) vs Josh Allen (BUF)
+102
-154
Most Receiving Yards: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
-1667
+555
Most Receiving Yards: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Dawson Knox (BUF)
-2500
+640
Most Receiving Yards: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Khalil Shakir (BUF)
-179
+119
Most Receiving Yards: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
-385
+229
Most Receiving Yards: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
-477
+260
Most Receptions: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
-2500
+655
Most Receptions: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Khalil Shakir (BUF)
-129
-113
Most Receptions: Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs Dalton Kincaid (BUF)
-323
+206
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-910
+405
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-556
+300
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-667
+330
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-358
+212
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Devaughn Vele (DEN)
-182
+119
Most Receiving Yards: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+114
-173
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-1250
+520
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-2000
+620
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-3334
+715
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-501
+285
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Devaughn Vele (DEN)
-271
+179
Most Receptions: Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
-112
-129
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-213
+138
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-152
+100
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-167
+110
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+300
-556
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Devaughn Vele (DEN)
+162
-257
Most Receiving Yards: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-105
-143
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-150
+104
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-189
+129
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-124
-117
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+490
-1112
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Devaughn Vele (DEN)
+177
-271
Most Receptions: Dawson Knox (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
+140
-205
Most Receiving Yards: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
-213
+139
Most Receiving Yards: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Khalil Shakir (BUF)
+220
-371
Most Receiving Yards: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
-118
-129
Most Receptions: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
-244
+163
Most Receptions: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Keon Coleman (BUF)
-150
+104
Most Receptions: Devaughn Vele (DEN) vs Khalil Shakir (BUF)
+375
-715
Most Rushing Yards: Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) vs Ty Johnson (BUF)
-455
+260
Most Rushing Yards: Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) vs Ray Davis (BUF)
-209
+135
Most Rushing Yards: Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) vs James Cook (BUF)
+208
-345
Most Rushing Yards: James Cook (BUF) vs Javonte Williams (DEN)
-1112
+445
Most Rushing Yards: Javonte Williams (DEN) vs Ty Johnson (BUF)
-141
-107
Most Rushing Yards: Javonte Williams (DEN) vs Ray Davis (BUF)
+112
-170
Most Receiving Yards: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-417
+242
Most Receiving Yards: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-304
+189
Most Receiving Yards: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-334
+204
Most Receiving Yards: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-209
+137
Most Receiving Yards: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+139
-213
Most Receptions: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-371
+229
Most Receptions: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-244
+161
Most Receptions: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-295
+191
Most Receptions: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-134
-108
Most Receptions: Keon Coleman (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+260
-435
Most Receiving Yards: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN)
-3334
+665
Most Receiving Yards: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-1667
+555
Most Receiving Yards: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Lucas Krull (DEN)
-1429
+509
Most Receiving Yards: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-834
+380
Most Receiving Yards: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
-164
+110
Most Receptions: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-2500
+675
Most Receptions: Khalil Shakir (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
-264
+173
Most Receiving Yards: Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
+164
-257
Most Receptions: Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
+144
-213
Most Receiving Yards: Lucas Krull (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
+120
-182
Most Receptions: Lucas Krull (DEN) vs Mack Hollins (BUF)
-105
-137
Most Receiving Yards: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-200
+131
Most Receiving Yards: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+265
-477
Most Receiving Yards: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
-125
-121
Most Receptions: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Nate Adkins (DEN)
-167
+114
Most Receptions: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Troy Franklin (DEN)
+127
-186
Most Receptions: Mack Hollins (BUF) vs Marvin Mims (DEN)
+445
-1000
Our Pick
Denver Broncos +9.5
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