Chiefs -10.5 vs. Panthers:KC Winning Margin This Season is an Average of Under 6 But...

The Chiefs look to rebound following their first loss of the season as Carolina surprisingly is looking for their third straight win. 

Chiefs @ Panthers

Opening Line - This one opened at KC -11.

Line Trend  - The line has moved from -11 to -10.5.

Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of Chiefs 14.3.

Action Trend – Action is nearly 90% on the Chiefs.

Comparables

• Wisconsin -10.5 Northwestern (road favorite Wisconsin covers and wins big) Wisconsin 16.35 - Underlay of 6 - Road favorite covers.

• Michigan -10.5 Iowa (road favorite covers and wins by 14)  Michigan 14.71 Underlay of 4 - Road favorite covers.

Tony Caliente's Take

"We've only recently begun monitoring games with the 10/10.5/11 lines, mostly in college.  Underlays in this range have performed especially well for the favorite.  Here we have a very good Chiefs team coming off their first loss and a very bad Panthers team having won two straight.  The action scares us just a bit with the line trending downwards."

Chiefs Players to Watch

RB Isiah Pacheco and DE Charles Omenihu, assuming they play. Pacheco has been out with an ankle injury that required surgery in Week 2, forcing the Chiefs to sign Kareem Hunt — and potentially creating a two-headed monster in the backfield if the all-energy Pacheco is back on the field. Omenihu would help a pass rush that failed to sack the Bills’ Josh Allen last week. Omenihu has been out since having surgery to repair a torn ACL sustained in the playoffs.

Panthers Players to Watch

RB Chuba Hubbard is coming off a career-high 153-yard rushing performance against the Giants prior to the bye and has been a big bright spot for Carolina. Hubbard has 818 yards and six touchdowns rushing on the season, while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Hubbard also has 30 receptions, including one TD catch. If the Panthers hope to upset the Chiefs, they’ll need to rely on Hubbard — as well as rookie Jonathon Brooks — to have a big game in order to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible. The problem is the Chiefs are third in the league against the run.

Winners and Whiners Prediction

"There is going to be money put on the Panthers in this matchup based on the Chiefs' average margin of victory this season, which is just under six points per game. However, that theory doesn't hold up for me, given the Panther's average margin in their losses. The Panthers have a scoring margin of -14.3 this season despite winning each of their last two games. That is by far the worst in the league and doesn't bode well when squaring off against the Chiefs. Despite their close games, the Chiefs are still 11th in scoring this season compared with just 29th for the Panthers. The Chiefs also may get Pacheco back this week, giving them more depth in the backfield and making Hunt a more viable threat in the passing game. The Chiefs' run defense, ranked third in the NFL, will force Young to beat them, something the 2nd year QB isn't up to the challenge of at this point. Don't get caught up in the Chiefs' relatively slim margin of victory this season. They'll take care of business on Sunday with what I consider to be a modest line."