Colts vs. Broncos Betting Preview December 15

A game with significant playoff implications, the Colts take on the Broncos in Denver Sunday.

A loss all but eliminates the Colts (6-7) from postseason consideration.

The Broncos (8-5) are certainly in a much more comfortable position. 

But a Denver loss means the Broncos would hold a slim one-game lead with battles remaining on the road against the Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) and at home against the Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) in the season finale.

Line Analysis

This one opened at -5 favoring the Broncos and drifted down to -3.5 before moving back up to -4.  Sagarin gives us a number of 2.49, indicating an overlay.

Comparables

Here we look at past games where the road dog opened at +5 (or +4.5) and the line dropped to +3.5 with an overlay detected.  In general, overlays in the 3/3.5 range have performed especially well for the underdog.

• UNC +4.5 to +3.5 Miami (road dog UNC covers and wins). Miami 0.25 Overlay of 3 to 4 points. - Road dog covers.
• Iowa +4.5 to +3.5 Purdue (road dog Iowa covers and wins big ) Purdue 1.28 Overlay of 2 to 3 points  - Road dog covers.

Colts Player to Watch

QB Anthony Richardson. The second-year quarterback has led two fourth-quarter comebacks in the three games he's played since a return from his benching. He's running more and making quicker decisions when he throws. But the Colts generated just six points against Detroit and this is the best defense he's faced since the Lions.

Broncos Player to Watch

LB Nik Bonitto. He's had a career-high 11 sacks this season, which trails only Cincinnati defensive end Trey Hendrickson (12 1/2). Bonitto is one of the quickest players off the snap this season, with an average get-off speed of 0.75 seconds. The only edge players with at least 500 defensive snaps who rank higher are Cleveland's Myles Garrett Cleveland (0.71) and Tennessee's Harold Landry III (0.72), according to NextGen Stats. Bonitto picked off a pass against the Browns and returned it 71 yards for a score.

Key Matchup

Colts offensive line vs. Broncos defensive front. Denver has had one of the league's top defenses all season and the Colts have started three backups each of the past three weeks. Sure, Richardson's ability to run could negate some of the pressure applied by the Broncos, But on Wednesday, Colts coach Shane Steichen was still uncertain whether Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly would return from injured reserve this week, whether Tanor Bortolini (concussion) may start or whether veteran Danny Pinter could make his second straight start.

We are backing the Colts +4 Here