D'Andre Swift Total Rushing Yards Prop Bet vs. New England Patriots

D'Andre Swift total rushing yards prop bet was coming in at 71.5.

Swift rushed 16 times for 51 yards and caught 6-of-6 targets for 31 yards in the Bears’ Week 9 loss to the Cardinals.

He rushed 18 times for 129 yards and one touchdown in the Bears’ Week 8 loss to the Commanders.

Patriots @ Bears

Opening Line - Chicago -7

Line Trend  - This one has moved from -7 to -6, briefly hitting -5.5 before coming back up to -6.

Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of Bears 8.18.  No edge using our model.

Action Trend – Action was heavy on the Bears. 

Comparables

• Jaguars +7 to +5.5 Texans (Texans 6.98 On The Money to Underlay) - Road dog covers.
• Broncos +7 to +6 Bucs (Bucs 7.36 On The Money) - Road dog covers.
• Detroit +7 to +5.5 Minnesota (road dog Detroit covers with Minnesota only winning by 4 points)  Minnesota 6.11  On the Money to a 1 Point Overlay - Road dog covers.
• Seattle +7 to +4.5 LA Chargers (road dog Seattle covers and wins) LA 10.93 Underlay of 4 to 6.5 points - Road dog covers.

Tony Caliente's Take

"Why on Earth would the line be dropping from -7 to -5.5 with so much of the action on the Bears?  Plenty of previous comparables with a similar underlay with a dog that's gone from +7 to +5.5 have gone towards that dog."

Patriots Player to Watch

QB Drake Maye. The No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft dazzled and showed he remains a work in progress last week. Maye threw for 206 yards and a dazzling touchdown at the end of regulation, dodging defenders for nearly 12 seconds before finding Rhamondre Stevenson in the end zone as he was hit to force overtime. The former North Carolina star ran for 95 yards. But he also threw two interceptions, including one in OT.

Bears Player to Watch

QB Caleb Williams. The No. 1 overall draft pick has cooled off following a hot stretch, with a 65.4 passer rating and 49.2% completion rate (32 of 65) the past two games. In the four games prior to that, he threw for nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

Key Matchup

Williams vs. Maye. Williams finds himself going against another top quarterback from this year's draft class for the second time in three games, after Jayden Daniels led Washington to a win on a Hail Mary pass two weeks ago. While Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, is leading a resurgence in Washington, the transition to the NFL has not been as smooth for Williams and Maye.