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The Miami Dolphins look to hit the .500 mark as they head to a cold Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures here will be in the 20's for this one.
How Accurate is The Bears vs. Lions Line?
Sagarin gives us a number of Green Bay 5.52. The actual line opened at Packers -3.5 and has since slipped to -3.
There is a definitive underlay here, which tends to give a much bigger edge to favorites in college football within the 3/3.5 range than with the NFL.
Comparables
- Detroit +3.5 to +3 New York Giants (road dog Detroit covers and wins) NYG 4.99 Underlay of 1.5 to 2 points - Road dog covers.
- Jaguars +3.5 Dolphins (Dolphins 5.1 Underlay) - Road dog covers.
- Miami +3.5 Baltimore (road dog Miami wins) Baltimore 4.38 1 point underlay - Road dog covers.
- Jacksonville -3 / -3.5 Houston (road favorite Jacksonville covers with big win) Jacksonville 5.78 Underlay 2.5 to 3 points - Road dog covers.
- West Virginia +3.5 vs. Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State -10.5 Big Underlay) - Road dog covers.
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- Washington State +3.5 to +3 Oregon State (home favorite Oregon State covers and wins by a lot) Oregon State 5.85 - 2.5 to 3 point Underlay - Home favorite covers.
- Arizona State +3.5 Texas Tech (Texas Tech 4.67 Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
- Jets +3.5 New England (home favorite NE covers and wins) NE 5.22 Underlay of 2 points - Home favorite covers.
Dolphins Player to Watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa. He has had one of the best stretches of his career since returning from a concussion in Week 8, with 1,277 yards passing, 11 touchdowns and one interception in his five games back. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.3% completion rate and is coming off a four-touchdown, 317-yard passing performance on Sunday. Tagovailoa has a touchdown pass in his past 11 games, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL this season.
Packers Player to Watch
Safety Xavier McKinney grabbed his seventh interception of the season Sunday and is tied with Detroit’s Kerby Joseph for the NFL lead in that category. He has the most interceptions in a single season by any Packer since Hall of Famer Charles Woodson had seven in 2011. McKinney has eight total takeaways, as he also has recovered a fumble.
A Few More Notes
- 70% to 75% of the action was on the Packers spread.
- The Packers have won the past three matchups and six of the past eight.
- When it comes to the "due" factor, Green Bay is a good candidate here. Despite owning an 8-3 record Straight Up they are just 5-6 Against The Spread.
- The Dolphins are just 16th in the NFL against the run, and the Packers are sure to try and exploit that fact.
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