Bears vs. Lions Expert Handicapping Picks for Thanksgivng Day 2024

The Chicago Bears take on the red hot league leading Detroit Lions this Thanksgiving Day.  Some of us are old enough to remember the calls to have Detroit removed from the Turkey Day NFL slate due to their long standing ineptitude.  Those days are now behind us.

Detroit will come into this game with some injury concerns.  Look for possible game-time decisions on who will be available Thursday. Campbell said he’s most concerned about whether T Taylor Decker (knee), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee), WR Kalif Raymond (foot) and CB Carlton Davis III (knee, thumb) will be ready. None would have practiced on Monday, per the estimated injury report. Also, RB David Montgomery (shoulder) and D.J. Reader (illness) would not have practiced. CB Terrion Arnold (groin) would have had a full practice.

Current Top NFL Handicappers

The leaderboard handicappers in the NFL this week are SWJ Sports (9-3), Black Widow (5-0) and Kyle Buchman (5-1).

Over the past month, these cappers have excelled with their NFL picks:

Evan Lewis (10-2), Steve Janus (6-0) and Kyle Parker (10-4).

Seasonal success belongs to Tonny Ricci (14-4), Mike Lundin (10-2) and The Bookie (35-24) as well as Logan Wilson (20-11). 

Only two cappers were backing Detroit early and both have performed miserably with their recent plays, so you will definitely want to monitor the Sports Hub closely.

The House (Doesn't) Always Wins

Detroit was among the big public favorites that disappointed for the books.

These big public favorites - those seeing 75% or greater on the spread - went 4-3 last week.

One of the more heartbreaking losses for the public came with Dallas defeating Washington outright, in addition to covering the spread of course.

Be careful here as the Lions are seeing greater than 85% of the action on the spread.  The line has ticked down too from -11 to -9.

How Accurate is The Bears vs. Lions Line?

Sagarin gives us a number of 12.32, that's a few points above the number we were getting on Wednesday.  In other words, there is a pretty obvious underlay.

Detroit is 8-1 Against The Spread in their last nine games.

Chicago has covered in two (one was technically a push) despite losing their last five.

Comparables

There aren't a whole lot of games we've observed over the past three years where the line has moved from above the 10 to below that number.

ISU was a +10.5 to a +9.5 against TCU with the favorite winning and covering big and an underlay of 4 to 5.  The samples are too limited however.

David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions

Bears Player to Watch

QB Caleb Williams. The No. 1 overall pick from the NFL draft in Detroit has looked more comfortable the past two games with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. Williams was regressing in the weeks leading up to Shane Waldron’s firing. He threw for 340 yards and two TDs last week in his fourth straight turnover-free game and fifth in a row without an interception.

Lions Player to Watch

RB David Montgomery. He has run for a TD in each of the past three games and has rushed for 11 scores this season. In 25 games with the Lions, he has 24 rushing TDs. In 60 games with the Chicago Bears from 2019 to 2022, he ran for 26 scores and had 4,849 yards from scrimmage. Montgomery was slowed by a shoulder injury last week, but is expected to play.

Fun Facts

The Lions surprisingly have lost seven straight games on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago ended a three-game losing streak in the series last year.

The Bears will play the Lions on the holiday for the 20th time, trailing only Green Bay’s 22 appearances in Detroit on Thanksgiving.