Falcons vs. Commanders Game Moves to Primetime With Washington a -3.5 Favorite

The Falcons vs. Commanders line was coming in at Washington -3.5.

This game has playoff implications for both teams and has thus moved to prime time Sunday.

Playoff Implications

On Sunday night, Jaylen Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. face off in the league's first prime-time showdown of rookie QBs selected in the first round, and the spotlight is bright with significant playoff implications at stake.

“I'm happy for him — he waited his time,” Daniels said of Penix. “He's a phenomenal player in my eyes, and I'm excited to be able to match up against him.”

Daniels and the Commanders (10-5) are in the playoffs with a win. They might already be in before kickoff if Tampa Bay loses at home to Carolina.

The Falcons can clinch the NFC South in Week 17 with a win and a Buccaneers loss, so they will know by kickoff on Sunday whether a win puts them into the playoffs.

“The reality is that you fight, you fight, you fight and you put yourself in a position to go out there and win your division,” Penix said. "You put yourself in a chance to get yourself to qualify for extra play. We’re right in the mix of doing that, and we’ve got to go do it and finish.”

The Falcons regained control of the NFC South when the Buccaneers lost to the Cowboys in Week 16.

Atlanta is clinging to the division by only a tiebreaker, thanks to a season sweep of Tampa Bay.

The scenarios for the Falcons are straightforward. Atlanta wins the NFC South by winning out, or simply by posting the same record as the Buccaneers over these final two weeks of the season.

If the Falcons lose to the Commanders and the Buccaneers win on Sunday, Tampa Bay would suddenly be in the driver's seat. In that scenario, the Falcons would need a win and a Buccaneers loss in Week 18 to win the NFC South.

Atlanta cannot reach the playoffs as a wildcard.

Remarkably, the Commanders are two games back of the Eagles in the NFC East but are still alive for a division title.  If Washington wins out and Philadelphia loses out, the Commanders could still win the division on a tiebreaker.

The Commanders clinch a playoff spot with one of the following two outcomes:

•     A win over the Falcons OR
•     A Buccaneers loss against the Panthers

Additionally, Washington is eliminated from NFC East title contention with:

•     A loss against the Falcons OR
•     An Eagles win against the Cowboys

The Commanders cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week regardless of the results.

A loss by the Bucs early Sunday afternoon may make this prime time game less important.

Line Analysis and Action

70% of the action was on the Commanders.  This line has been mostly steady at Commanders -3.5.

The number is dead on, according to Sagarin (Commanders 3.82).

Comparables

• Cardinals +3.5 Vikings (Vikings 3.91 On The Money) 68% of action on Vikings. - Road dog covers.
• Carolina +3.5 New Orleans (road dog Carolina covers and wins) New Orleans 3.23 On the Money  - Road dog covers.
• Minnesota +3.5 / +3 Green Bay (home favorite Green Bay covers and wins big ) Green Bay 3.62 On The Money - Home favorite covers.
• FSU +3 / +3.5 NC State (road dog FSU covers with NC State 2 point win ) NC State 4.06 Overlay 1 point to On the Money - Road dog covers.
• KSU +3.5 to +3 Baylor (road dog KSU covers and wins by a lot) Baylor 3.62 On the Money - Road dog covers.

Winners and Whiners Prediction

Winners and Whiners will be on the Falcons +3.5

"The Commanders have played many close games this season, with four of their last five games decided by one score. The Falcons will try and replicate that on Sunday night, relying on a ground-heavy attack to protect their rookie quarterback. The Falcons duo of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will pound the Commanders' 29th-ranked run defense. That will allow Penix to make plays down the field with play-action passes. The Falcons have protected the quarterback well this season, ranked 9th in sacks allowed despite the immobile Cousins under center for much of the season. Atlanta should be able to produce long, sustained drives thanks to their ability to avoid penalties to get them behind the sticks. Washington will try to exploit the Falcons' secondary on Sunday, with the Falcons ranked just 20th against the pass. That could be made more challenging on Sunday in DC with the forecast calling for rain. I expect this game to stay tight and opportunities to be limited in a playoff atmosphere on Sunday night."

Our Pick