Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Prop bet vs. New Orleans Saints

Jalen Hurts passing yards total Over/Under was coming in at 239.5 versus the New Orleans Saints.

Hurts completed 22-of-30 passes for 183 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the Eagles’ 22-21, Week 2 loss to the Falcons, adding 85 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.

From NBC Sports:

"Hurts and the Eagles seemed to be in control of the game late but a dropped pass from running back Saquon Barkley on third down with under two minutes to play gave the ball back to the Falcons with Philadelphia up by six points. Had Barkley come down with a routine reception for the first down, the Eagles would have been able to ice the game as the Falcons were out of timeouts. The Eagles fall to 1-1 on the season after a shootout win over the Packers in Week 1. The big story of this one was the return of the tush push and the rushing upside for Hurts after a relatively modest 33 yards on the ground to open the season. Up next for the Eagles is a road matchup against one of the more surprising teams to start the year in the Saints."

The Eagles come into Sunday's game against the 2-0 Saints as a +2.5 road dog. The line has moved from +1.5 to +2.5 with Philadelphia having been the favorite ahead of this week. But New Orleans has played well its first two games.

Hurts may run into some problems against a Saints pass rush that has seven sacks times in two games. Hurts is an elite scrambler, who has 118 yards and a TD rushing this season. And he has given the Saints fits in the past. In two starts against the Saints (2020 and 2021), Hurts has 175 yards and three TDs rushing.

Sagarin suggests the wrong team is favored here and has Philadelphia at 1.27.  In the 2.5/3 range, wrong teams favored do not provide any edge according to our two-year old model sampling of NFL games with similar scenarios.  In college football, however, the dog is 17-4 (81%) among sampled games in this scenario.