Oddsmakers Not Fooled By Jordan Love Week 2 Status

Don't be fooled.

Despite not taking a single practice rep since his left knee injury in the Sept. 6 season opener, Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love was not ruled out on Friday and instead was listed as questionable.

Earlier on Friday, Packers coach Matt LaFleur said Love still needed medical clearance.

Love was initially expected to miss multiple games after suffering a sprained MCL with 6 seconds left in the season-opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil.

He's doing good, you know," LaFleur said Friday about an hour before the injury report was released. "He's got a great attitude and is working hard and getting better every day."

NFL teams can make status updates on Saturday, so there was still the possibility then that the Packers could downgrade Love at that point.

But oddsmakers weren't buying this for one second.

Sagarin does not factor injuries into the equation immediately.  Assuming Love were playing, Sagarin's number comes in at Packers -5 hosting the Indianapolis Colts.  Instead, sportsbooks across the board have Green Bay as the +2.5 home underdog.  It shouldn't surprise anyone that Love is worth greater than a touchdown on the betting line.

In the end, it didn't matter as Green Bay’s running game pounded the Indianapolis defense for four quarters in a 16-10 Loveless win for the Packers.

And it appears the gambling public was fooled into falling for a heavily favored Colts team that is now 0-2 to start 2024.

Close to 75% of the betting public were backing the Colts on the spread while our own model didn't give much of an edge to the wrong team favored in the 2.5 to 3 point range. It did suggest an advantage to the favorite with a substantial overlay however.