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Plenty is at stake for both teams in this NFC showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
The NFC-leading Lions (11-1) are aiming to stay ahead of Philadelphia (10-2) in the race for the conference's best record and Minnesota (10-2) in the NFC North with a win against the Packers.
Detroit can also clinch a spot in the playoffs with an 11th straight victory that would set a franchise record.
“We’re in playoff football right now,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “This is the type of stuff that you live for and it’s also the type of stuff that gets you ready for the tournament.”
Green Bay (9-3) also has a lot to play for because it can pull within a game of the Lions if it can split the season series with a slight upset as 3 1/2-point underdogs, according to .
“This game is going to be important for us moving forward toward the end of this thing and we’re going to treat it as such,” Packers safety Xavier McKinney said.
Detroit has won five of the last six games of this series. Each of those wins were by more than the current spread of -3.5.
What Should the Line Be?
The line on this game has stayed on the -3.5 favoring Detroit and Sagarin gives us a number of 4.7, indicating an underlay.
Comparables
Here we simply look for games where the road team is a steady +3.5 dog and the line is either a slight underlay or on the money.
- Cardinals +3.5 Vikings (Vikings 3.91 On The Money) 68% of action on Vikings. - Road dog covers.
- Jaguars +3.5 Dolphins (Dolphins 5.1 Underlay) - Road dog covers.
- Miami +3.5 Baltimore (road dog Miami wins) Baltimore 4.38 1 point underlay - Road dog covers.
- Carolina +3.5 New Orleans (road dog Carolina covers and wins) New Orleans 3.23 On the Money - Road dog covers.
- Jets +3.5 New England (home favorite NE covers and wins) NE 5.22 Underlay of 2 points - Home favorite covers.
- Arizona State +3.5 Texas Tech (Texas Tech 4.67 Underlay) - Home favorite covers.
Winners and Whiners Prediction
From Winners and Whiners:
"These teams met at Lambeau Field last month with the Lions prevailing by 10 as part of their 10-game win streak. Detroit is a dangerous offensive team and they are going to test the Packers’ defense here. Green Bay has a solid run game to lean on but the last thing they want is to get in a shootout with Detroit, especially on the fast turn at Ford Field with weather a non-factor. Love has had problems with interceptions at times this season, while Goff had that five-pick game against Houston but has just four interceptions in the other 11 games. The Lions have a solid 1-2 punch on the ground and they are at home. They already own a win on the road: look for Detroit to maintain their hold on the NFC North top spot as they prevail here."
Our Pick
Green Bay Packers +3.5
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