What Are the Payout Odds If the Colts Beat the Bills Outright?

Should the Indianapolis Colts beat the Buffalo Bills outright at home Sunday, the payout is nearly $200 ($172 most books) for every $100 bet.  Be careful here though.  Only one underdog won outright last week.

Bills @ Colts Betting Analysis

Opening Line - The line opened at either Bills -4 or -4.5 depending on the book.

Line Trend  - This one has moved from -4.5 to -3.5

Sagarin – Sagarin gives us a number of 5.56, thus indicating an underlay here.

Action Trend – Action was 80% on the Bills. 

Comparables

• Packers (-4) -4.5 to -3.5 Jaguars  (Packers 7.65 - Big Underlay) - Home dog covers.

Remarkably we only have one comparable for the last two years.

Players and Key Matchup

Bills Player to Watch

RB James Cook. With rookie receiver Keon Coleman ruled out and veteran receiver Amari Cooper's status uncertain, Cook could carry a heavier workload. The third-year player leads Buffalo with 496 yards rushing and seven TDs. He also has one TD catch. Cook had 10 carries for 44 yards last week, but Indy's defense has allowed 120 or more yards rushing seven times this season.

Colts Player to Watch

QB Joe Flacco. The 39-year-old quarterback struggled against Minnesota’s defense last week but expects to rebound Sunday. Flacco’s experience — and a return to Indy’s home field — should help. But he also knows he must perform better to keep the Colts on the field and give them a chance to win.

Key Matchup

Bills defensive front vs. Colts offensive line. Buffalo DT Ed Oliver is disruptive against most offensive linemen, but this week could prove especially problematic for the Colts after they placed Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly on injured reserve. Indy will be starting a rookie center, Tanor Bortolini, and an undrafted rookie guard, Dalton Tucker, though getting back LT Bernhard Raimann (concussion protocol) would help Indy. If the Bills spend significant time in Indy’s backfield, the offense could sputter again.