Tua Tagovailoa Total Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Buffalo Bills - Thursday Night Football

Tua Tagovailoa comes into Thursday night's game against the Buffalo Bills with a passing yards total of 269.5.

He threw for 338 yards in Week 1 versus Jacksonville.

Jason Sanders made a 52-yard field goal as time expired and the Dolphins went on to rally past the Jaguars 20-17 after trailing much of the game at home.

Key Stats

Series record: Dolphins lead 62-58-1

Last meeting: Bills beat Dolphins 21-14 on Jan. 7, 2024, at Miami.

Bills offense: overall (11), rush (13), pass (9), scoring (3t)

Bills defense: overall (11t), rush (16), pass (11), scoring (22t)

Dolphins offense: overall (5), rush (25), pass (1), scoring (16t)

Dolphins defense: overall (10), rush (17), pass (9), scoring (7t)

Turnover differential: Bills even; Dolphins plus-1.

Bills Have Owned the Dolphins of Late

Miami has lost 11 of the past 12 games to the Bills while Tagovailoa is 1-6 in seven career starts against Buffalo and missed their playoff tussle due to injury.

Winning is the only way to change the narrative, according to the Dolphins starting QB.

"That's going to be what's written out there until we do something about that," he said, via the team's official transcript. "That's going to be the narrative, that we can't beat the Bills. And until we do beat them, and we beat them consistently, none of that's going to change. And we have an opportunity to do that this year. We have an opportunity to do that this Thursday."

Tagovailoa said he doesn't think about that loss and just focuses on the task ahead.

"Last year is last year, brother. What a political answer," he said, laughing. "Oh my gosh. Last year is last year, brother. Worry about this year so we'll see what we got today, and we'll work its way down to Thursday and see what we can do Thursday."

Examining the Line

The line on this game is Miami -2.5 while Sagarin suggests it should be -1. 

The line has ranged from -1.5 to -2.5.  At -1.5, this number was pretty much on the money, which is solid for the favorite with our own model.  Even the slight overlay gives the favorite an edge.