Weekly Review From Behind the Desk - 2024 Week 8 NFL

In this article we will talk about all things NFL that we saw from the Sportsbook point of view at BetAmapola sportsbook. These weekly articles on the NFL will supplement our other content about College Football and other action on Saturday. You can follow along at @BetAmapola on twitter so you can get a real time look at the action we are taking and where the money is at, along with any other juicy nuggets we can provide. Feel free to send us a DM on twitter or contact the Amapola Resort located in beautiful Jaco Beach, Costa Rica for more information. Check out our new landing page at AmapolaCasino.com, which now has poker tournaments going every day. 

Last Score Madness: 

The way some of these games have been ending have been wild. Our sportsbook was about to lose pretty big on the Bears Commanders game due to taking +3 on both teams at point or another during the week due to the Daniels injury news. The Hail Mary saved us as everyone in the office cheered. The Chiefs game also ended with a meaningless touchdown that changed the outcome of not only the spread, but also the total. The Panthers scored a late meaningless touchdown to take the game over the total. The witching hour has always been crazy, but yesterday took it to a new level of craziness in terms of gambling. 

One-Way Action: 

One of the most surprising things of the weekend for us was the Browns vs Ravens game. We Took more bets on the Browns than any other game, as they were a big time public dog. Of course this meant that The Ravens would forget how to play football and The Browns with their new QB would play like world beaters. We even took a good amount of Browns Ml bets. As you can tell, this was the sportsbooks worst result of the day as the bettors got the cash. 

Games falling on the number:

In both College Football and the NFL, we are still noticing a trend of games falling right on the spread and the total. These games are a disaster for sportsbooks because we lose the bets on both sides.  For example, we will have bets on over 46.5 and under 47.5 because of the nature of the line movements. If the game falls on 47, the sportsbooks are gutted. This seems to be happening more and more, most likely due to the numbers getting sharper every single year as more skilled bettors enter the market and help shape the market. To combat this, we continue moving juice on the games more than moving numbers, which will leave us less exposed to the middle. Pinnacle has been using this model for years and we are starting to believe this might be the best option as the numbers continue to get sharper. 

Key Injuries:  Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 9

Use these injury nuggets for props, gambling, and also fantasy sports

Jordan Love

The early reports on Jordan Love's groin injury that forced him out of Week 8 have been positive. If he does miss time, it torpedoes the pass-catchers but likely provides a boost to Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs had 25 carries on Sunday, his second most of the year, trailing only the 32 he had in Malik Willis' first start. He had 151 yards from scrimmage there and 125 this week, also his top two marks of the year.

The Green Bay Packers have shown they'll lean on Jacobs if Love is out, and that approach has worked. So while it's a bummer to push the pass-catchers out of play, a temporary boost to Jacobs helps a bit.

Stefon Diggs

The Houston Texans seemed to have elite receiver depth entering the year. But that depth is being tested now after Stefon Diggs left Week 8 with a non-contact knee injury.

The Texans didn't throw much after Diggs' injury with just five C.J. Stroud drop backs. Both Tank Dell and John Metchie III had two targets, and Robert Woods had one.

Dell has been frustrating all year long, and he had just 4 targets for 35 yards here. Dalton Schultz out-did him in both categories with 6 targets for 52 yards, all before Diggs left.

If Diggs misses time, Schultz is a quality streamer and a low-end DFS option until Nico Collins returns.

As for Dell, it just seems like he's still -- understandably -- trying to regain his burst after sustaining a gunshot wound in April. This does boost his target expectations, but I haven't seen enough to think Dell will suddenly be a target hog.

Instead, I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans lean even more on Joe Mixon. Mixon has 178, 132, 124, and 134 yards from scrimmage in his 4 full games while rocking a 58.5% red-zone share. He doesn't have a ton of room to go up, but he's among the best fantasy backs in the league right now.

As for the secondary pass-catchers, I'd rank John Metchie III highest. Yes, Xavier Hutchinson ran way more routes than Metchie (25 to 8), but Hutchinson has been running wind sprints the past couple games, and Metchie actually earned targets when given a chance. Both will get sent back to purgatory once Collins is back, but Metchie is the preferred dart throw.

Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel

Hopefully this is all moot both because the San Francisco 49ers have a bye in Week 9 and because Christian McCaffrey is trending toward a return following that bye. But Jordan Mason left with a shoulder injury, and Deebo Samuel sustained a rib injury with neither returning.

Without Mason, Isaac Guerendo popped with a 65.6% snap rate, turning 14 carries and 4 targets into 102 yards from scrimmage. He separated from Patrick Taylor, who split work with him when Mason got banged up earlier in the season. Guerendo is the clear No. 3 on the depth chart behind McCaffrey and Mason.

Samuel still managed to play 62.5% of the snaps, tying George Kittle for the team lead with 7 targets. Kittle turned his into 128 yards and a touchdown, and Samuel had a long touchdown called back via penalty. Both would project for rock-solid usage even with McCaffrey back in the mix if Samuel winds up being okay.

If not, it'd open another door for Ricky Pearsall, who had 4 targets and a rush attempt for 77 yards from scrimmage. His status is murkier with Jauan Jennings also potentially returning soon, but he did at least look up to the task here.

Drake Maye

After some exciting moments in his first two starts and a rushing touchdown Sunday, Drake Maye was ruled out early due to a concussion. This puts his Week 9 status very much up in the air.

Jacoby Brissett came on in relief and helped lead the New England Patriots to a win. He played well. But thus far, Maye has been the better, more exciting player, and if Brissett has to fill in, it'd cross off all of the pass-catchers except potentially Hunter Henry.

Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Gabe Davis

Christian Kirk had been the subject of trade talks entering the week, but those are dust after he left Week 8 due to a boken collarbone that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. To add to the Jacksonville Jaguars' issues, Brian Thomas Jr. left with a chest injury in the third quarter and didn't return, and Gabriel Davis missed the entire second half with a shoulder injury.

Not ideal!

With no updates on Thomas or Davis, we should expect decreased efficiency out of Trevor Lawrence in the short-term. Hopefully you weren't riding Lawrence in fantasy to begin with, but it's tough to put up good numbers without your top three receivers.

We should also expect tons of volume for Evan Engram. Although he had just five targets Sunday, Engram has a 23.1% target share in the games he has played. If he's no longer competing with that group for targets, he'll get all he can handle, making him a high-quality tight-end option for all formats.

Parker Washington would be next man up at receiver after he played 73.2% of the snaps. Thomas' aDOT was 14.4 yards on his 4 targets, so he has some juice, as well. He's worth a waiver add until we get clarity on the others here.

Kendre Miller

Kendre Miller has previously drawn the ire of head coach Dennis Allen for failing to stay healthy, so his hamstring injury Sunday is unlikely to help matters. It does, though, boost Alvin Kamara's stock as the New Orleans Saints start to get healthy.

Kamara's snap rate was just 55.9% Sunday, but he still had 10 carries and a season-high 11 targets. He turned that into 122 yards from scrimmage, his fifth time topping the century mark this year.

This is good timing for Kamara as Derek Carr could be back in Week 9, and the team got lineman Cesar Ruiz back this week. They'll have to hope Mason Tipton can help fill the shoes of Rashid Shaheed, but this is the healthiest they've been since kickoff in Week 3. Miller missing time would only further boost the appeal in Kamara in that offense.

Fantasy Football Role Changes

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp

Even with just two limited practices under his belt, Puka Nacua returned to a full role for the Rams, and Cooper Kupp's usage wasn't too shabby, either.

Nacua led the Rams with 9 targets (26.5% share) in Week 8, followed by Kupp (8 targets, 23.5%). Kyren Williams was the only other player with a double-digit target share.

These weren't just bunny looks for Nacua, either, who had four deep targets, helping him rack up 106 yards in addition to 2 rush attempts. He looks like he's (somehow) fully healthy, meaning I'll treat him as such going forward.

As for Kupp, it wasn't as stellar of a night as he had just one deep target and wasn't as productive. I'll still be comfortable using him in season-long, but for DFS, I'll want to see a bit more upside in his targets before buying in.

Finally, this is massive for Matthew Stafford, who had 279 yards and 4 touchdowns against a tough defense. He's back on the streaming menu, and he can be a DFS consideration if the Rams are in a plum game environment.

Everyone look out for our new weekly preview that will cover how lines are moving, where the Big Bettors are putting their money, and key injury updates after the coaches press conferences take place. This will be a great place for you to get info and insider tips from behind the desk that can help you make your betting decisions.

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