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Carrie Stroup here with my 2010 Week 13 NFL predictions for Gambling911.com readers. Last week, we did pretty well with both anti-public picks coming through.
Let’s get started.
This week’s 2 big public favorites we will bet against are the Bears and Falcons. Hence, I like Detroit as the +5 home favorite. They were only getting 12 percent of the action in this game so the bookmakers will make out big should they cover. Note also that Chicago is a mere7-26 ATS in road games in December games since 1992.
The Tampa Bay Bucs at +3 is my other pick. They were getting just 16 percent.
Let’s look at a few top trends that give a team an edge.
Typically, the public gets one of these two. Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons, so if they do happen to split, Detroit is probably more likely to come through. But I’ll always follow the system long term with the idea that the house always wins long term.
The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS when favored by between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the past three seasons. They’ve also played poorly at home, 6-26 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite. Really like the Cleveland Browns at +5.5 here.
Denver is 2-10 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and Kansas City is just so hot this season. Denver is also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. There are a few trends that go against the Chiefs and the price is a bit steep, but I’m going for it. Kansas City -9.
Green Bay is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. I also like the weather factor here (bitterly cold for a team, San Francisco, that is not used to these types of elements). The Packers tend to rebound nicely from a Straight Up loss where they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Green Bay -9.5.
New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. They are -7 on the road in Cincinnati. Don’t like the cold weather factor here, however.
Good luck everyone!
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
