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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds opened at -7 across the board in favor of North Carolina and the line has climbed all the way to -9 by press time Friday night. SBG Global still had this one at Tar Heels -8 ½.
The Sagarin line had this one at -8, falling right into the current range.
There was even action on both sides of this game, but still it was among the most heavily bet on this week.
Notre Dame has had a few impressive wins this season. They only lost to Michigan State, pretty badly however as +8 ½ underdogs stung by a double digit deficit. That loss was on the road where they failed miserably.
North Carolina likewise has one loss this season - at home to Virginia Tech.
Yahoo Sports is quick to point out that Notre Dame isn't the Notre Dame of the past and, in fact, comes into its game at North Carolina unranked, while the Tar Heels carry a No. 22 national ranking into their final non-conference game of the season.
Something else Yahoo Sports points out:
The Tar Heels have taken the national lead in interceptions with 12 for the season, one more than they had in all of 2007. CB Trimane Goddard leads the way with four by himself. The defense is giving up nearly 145 yards a game to opposing rushers, but Notre Dame is far from a juggernaut on the ground. The Irish average just over 103 yards per game rushing. DTs Marvin Austin, who returned an interception for a touchdown against UConn, and Cam Thomas are dominant inside, and DE E.J. Wilson, whose pass rush set up Austin's interception, is capable of big plays.
The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win, but are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Notre Dame as an underdog of 3 ½ to 10 points over the past 3 seasons is 1-6. That is a very compelling stat actually. As an underdog they are 3-11 straight up. As a road underdog of 7 ½ to 10 points, the Fighting Irish have a record of 0-3 ATS in the last three season.
There are strong indications that North Carolina can indeed cover this one by 8 ½ or more points and Gambling911.com believes based on past trends that's exactly what will happen here.
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
