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Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State was one of the most bet on games of the weekend in College Football. Betting odds opened at a pick and have moved up to Vanderbilt -2 ½ as the road favorite.
The Sagarin ratings do not have an accurate read on this matchup, allowing Vanderbilt to be a huge double digit favorite.
The home team has won 5 of 6 dating back to 1988.
The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games, which together makes for a pretty enticing stat.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss and 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games on grass. When playing against a team with a winning record, they are 4-10 straight up. The line here is Vanderbilt -2 ½, so this stat is worthwhile.
Now we should point out that Vanderbilt is 6-13 against conference opponents in the past three years. Then again, Mississippi State is 5-13, so these two stats essentially cancel each other out.
Nearly 80 percent of the betting public was on Vanderbilt to cover here.
Already off to its best start in Southeastern Conference play, Vanderbilt (3-0 SEC) can start the season 6-0 for the first time since 1928 and likely clinch its first bowl bid since 1982 with a win in Starkville.
The Commodores are No. 1 in the nation in turnover margin (plus 9) and No. 2 in interceptions (11). They're also tops in the conference in sacks (16) and penalties with 16-12 fewer than any other team.
Admittedly, this game has "sucker bet" written all over it but we are prepared to be called suckers betting Vanderbilt to cover the -2. We just can't pass this one up.
betED.com had this one at Vanderbilt -2.
