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Betting on the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings for the 2011 – 2012 season presents some challenges as any one of these teams can end up winning the NFC North.
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The immediate inclination is to bet the Super Bowl reigning Packers, but this year’s Green Bay team has a big target on their heads while playing in a division where each team has made improvements during the offseason.
Green Bay hasn’t gotten any worse though. They have a tough defense under Dom Capers, special teams has improved dramatically and they have Aaron Rodgers as quarterback. This team made it to the Super Bowl after placing 16 players on injury reserve last season, so expect another stellar performance in 2011-2012.
On paper, this team has the potential to lose 6 games (New Orleans at home, three of their division games on the road, and the Falcons and Chiefs games on the road). The more likely scenarios is that they lose only 5 of those games, and this is what the oddsmakers feel will happen too since the OVER 11.5 regular season games pays $140 for every $100 bet and the UNDER is listed with a line of -170. That said, there is a probably some value in betting Green Bay to win OVER 11.5 regular season games.
Future Betting Value Index:
Green Bay Packers to win the 2012 Super Bowl 4/1 – Fair
Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North -360 – Poor
Green Bay Packers to win OVER 11.5 regular season games – Fair
The Detroit Lions addressed their defensive situation during the offseason with the drafting of DT Nick Fairley No. 13 overall and signing LB Bobby Carpenter and CB Eric Wright. The injury bug already seems to be taking control in Detroit with Fairly hurting his foot and requiring surgery.
The Lions will have a very tough schedule with games on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cowboys and Saints. They host the Falcons, Chiefs, Packers and Chargers. That said, at least on paper, Detroit could actually end up winning 9 regular season games. The OVER/UNDER is 8 at -115 odds for both.
Oddsmakers have Detroit with relatively short odds for the 2011-2012 season, which indicates they feel strongly about this team’s future.
Future Betting Value Index:
Detroit Lions to win the 2012 Super Bowl 25/1 – Poor
Detroit Lions to win the NFC North 4/1 – Fair
Detroit Lions to win OVER 8 regular season games -115 - Good
The Bears made it to the Playoffs last season and improved during the offseason. So, too, have all the NFC North teams.
The Bears should be able to split the division series with 3 wins. They will host the Panthers and Seahawks, which should be winnable. Road games in Cleveland and Denver are also winnable but it is tough to see the Bears doing better than 7-9 unless they have vastly improved, which they really have not.
It’s possible, but the oddsmakers have Chicago set at winning OVER/UNDER 8 regular season games with the OVER slightly favored.
Futures Betting Value Index:
Chicago Bears to win the NFC North 5/1 – Fair
Chicago Bears odds to win the 2012 Super Bowl 50/1 – Fair
Chicago Bears odds to win OVER/UNDER 8 regular season games – Poor
Futures Betting Value Index:
The Minnesota Vikings have Donovan McNabb, which needs to account for something. With 10/1 long odds of winning this highly competitive division, there is some good value here to be sure and the Vikings cannot be entirely overlooked.
Minnesota Vikings odds to win the NFC North 10/1 – Good
Minnesota Vikings odds to win OVER/UNDER 7 games – Poor
Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
