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Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal betting odds had Djokovic favored at 4/6 while Nadal would pay slightly better than even odds at 6/5. (get updated odds here).
Both men will be playing in the 2012 Australian Open finals. It is their 30th match, therefore we do have plenty of information available to get some sense as to how this final might end up.
Most importantly, we can observe that Djokovic has won the last 6 in this head-to-head series. How then do we reverse recent trends?
Peter Bodo of ESPN.com writes:
First of all, he (Nadal) can place a thank-you call to Andy Murray, the No. 4 pro who forced Djokovic to play for almost five hours in their semifinal (a repeat of last year's final) before the Scot capitulated. As fit and determined as Djokovic may be, a five-hour match is never good preparation for the next round. Especially if that match has the resonance and epic feel of a final.
Bodo also suggests that Nadal can win by playing from atop or within the baseline, playing more aggressively and by capitalizing on opportunities.
Lost in all the well-deserved praise for the quality of the Djokovic-Murray match was the fact that it featured some very sloppy play from both men. To wit: The match featured a remarkable 50 break points -- 24 for Murray.
Sure, Djokovic served and defended those points well (Murray converted only seven) -- but big matches are usually won by the players who capitalize on chances. In his semifinal win over Roger Federer, Nadal had a look at 16 break points, and he converted six. He'll need to do better than that if he wants to turn the tables on Djokovic.
Match No. 1: French Open 2006 Quarterfinals -- Nadal, 6-4, 6-4--RET (Clay)
Match No. 2: Indian Wells 2007 Finals -- Nadal, 6-2, 7-5 (Hard)
Match No. 3: Miami 2007 Quarterfinals -- Djokovic, 6-3, 6-4 (Hard)
Match No. 4: Rome 2007 Quarterfinals -- Nadal, 6-2, 6-3 (Clay)
Match No. 5: French Open 2007 Semifinals -- Nadal, 7-5, 6-4, 6-2 (Clay)
Match No. 6: Wimbledon 2007 Semifinals -- Nadal, 3-6, 6-1, 4-1--RET (Grass)
Match No. 7: Montreal 2007 Semifinals -- Djokovic, 7-5, 6-3 (Hard)
Match No. 8: Masters Cup 2007 Round Robin -- Nadal, 6-4, 6-4 (Hard)
Match No. 9: Indian Wells 2008 Semifinals -- Djokovic, 6-3, 6-2 (Hard)
Match No. 10: Hamburg 2008 Semifinals -- Nadal, 7-5, 2-6, 6-2 (Clay)
Match No. 11: French Open 2008 Semifinals -- Nadal, 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (Clay)
Match No. 12: Queen's Club 2008 Finals -- Nadal, 7-6, 7-5 (Grass)
Match No. 13: Cincinnati 2008 Semifinals -- Djokovic, 6-1, 7-5 (Hard)
Match No. 14: Beijing Olympics Semifinals -- Nadal, 6-4, 1-6, 6-4 (Hard)
Match No. 15: Davis Cup 2009 -- Nadal, 6-4, 6-4, 6-1 (Clay)
Match No. 16: Monte Carlo 2009 Finals -- Nadal, 6-3, 2-6, 6-1 (Clay)
Match No. 17: Rome 2009 Finals -- Nadal, 7-6, 6-2 (Clay)
Match No. 18: Madrid 2009 Semifinals -- Nadal, 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 (Clay)
Match No. 19: Cincinnati 2009 Semifinals -- Djokovic, 6-1, 6-4 (Hard)
Match No. 20: Paris 2009 Semifinals -- Djokovic, 6-2, 6-3 (Hard)
Match No. 21: ATP World Tour Finals 2009 Round Robin -- Djokovic, 7-6, 6-3 (Hard)
Match No. 22: U.S. Open 2010 Finals -- Nadal, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 (Hard)
Match No. 23: ATP World Tour Finals 2010 Round Robin -- Nadal, 7-5, 6-2 (Hard)
Match No. 24: Indian Wells 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 (Hard)
Match No. 25: Miami 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (Hard)
Match No. 26: Madrid 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 7-5, 6-4 (Clay)
Match No. 27: Rome 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 6-4, 6-4 (Clay)
Match No. 28: Wimbledon 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 (Grass)
Match No. 29: U.S. Open 2011 Finals -- Djokovic, 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1 (Hard)
- Alistair Prescott, Gambling911.com
