Duke-Louisville Point Spread at Cardinals -3.5
Carrie Stroup here with your Elite 8 betting preview and the Duke-Louisville point spread. Claim your $100 FREE BET when you open an online wagering account at Sportsbook.com here.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Louisville -3.5 & 137
In a rematch of this season's Battle 4 Atlantis championship game in the Bahamas, top-seeded Louisville will take on No. 2 seed Duke in Saturday's Midwest Regional Finals for a spot in this year’s Final Four.
The Blue Devils beat the Cardinals 76-71 in that first meeting between these two teams on Nov. 24, though Rick Pitino’s squad was without C Gorgui Dieng that night. Louisville was favored by a point in that game, giving Mike Krzyzewski’s team the ATS win as well. That is one of four victories for Duke this season against top-five teams. But there may be no hotter team in college basketball than Louisville, which has won 13 consecutive games SU and nine out of 10 ATS. Duke has also found its groove though, coming off an impressive 10-point win against Michigan State in the Sweet 16 to give them two consecutive ATS wins and three straight NCAA Tournament victories by double-digits. Both of these teams have been incredibly good all season on neutral courts: Louisville is 7-3 ATS (9-1 SU) and Duke is 8-2 ATS (9-1 SU). The reason the Blue Devils can hang around with the top seed in the tournament is their ball-handling. Despite playing at a reasonably fast pace and scoring 77.6 PPG, Duke turns it over just 10.6 times per game, ninth-fewest in the nation. That doesn’t bode well for a Cardinals squad that relies on its pressure, forcing 18.8 turnovers per game, the second most in the nation.
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All tournament long, the Blue Devils have been led by senior SG Seth Curry (17.6 PPG), who is averaging 24.0 PPG on 50% FG (10-of-20 threes) in his three NCAA Tournament games this year. In Friday's win against the Spartans, he made 6-of-9 three-pointers and scored 29 points. He struggled, however, in the first meeting between the two teams, making just 3-of-11 FG (2-of-9 threes) for 14 points in the win over Louisville. All five Blue Devils starters scored in double-digits that game, but than PG Quinn Cook (11.7 PPG, 5.3 APG) shined the brightest. The sophomore earned the MVP in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament after a 15-point, six-assist effort against the Cardinals in which he also helped force six turnovers from their senior point guard Peyton Siva. Those 15 points included the final eight of the game. Cook must regain that form, however, after going scoreless (0-for-5 FG) with just two assists against Michigan State. Also in need of finding his game is senior PF Ryan Kelly (13.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG), who is making 43.6% of his three-pointers this season but has missed his last 14 treys over a span of five games. In those games he’s averaging just 6.8 PPG. Kelly had 14 points, six rebounds and four assists versus the Cardinals in November before fouling out. Key in the paint for Duke is PF Mason Plumlee (17.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG), whose 16 points and seven rebounds (both team highs) in the November meeting will be much more difficult to attain with the presence of the 6-foot-11 Dieng down low. For the NCAA Tournament, Plumlee is averaging 15.7 PPG and 6.7 RPG. The team’s X-factor can be freshman SG Rasheed Sulaimon (11.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG) who is averaging 18.5 PPG over the team’s past two wins, thanks to a 20-of-24 clip (83%) from the foul line. Sulaimon made just 1-of-6 threes in the earlier meeting with Louisville, but still scored 14 points with four rebounds.
Arguably no player has been as impressive in this year’s NCAA Tournament as Louisville junior SG Russ Smith (18.4 PPG), who is averaging 27.0 PPG on 55% FG in the Big Dance. In Friday's Sweet 16 win over Oregon, he dropped 31 points on 9-of-16 shooting. He is also an incredible defender, averaging 2.1 SPG for the season and 3.7 SPG during the Tournament. In the first meeting against Duke, he scored 17 points with seven rebounds, although he made just 7-of-19 shots and committed four turnovers. Senior PG Peyton Siva (9.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.2 SPG) runs the offense though, and must take better care of the ball than he did last time against Duke (4 Ast, 6 TO). He was able to score effectively in that game, however, going 8-of-15 from the field and scoring a game-high 19 points while recording six steals. Like Cook, he’s coming off a weak performance on Friday in which he scored just four points, turned it over four times and recorded just three assists in 19 foul-plagued minutes. The biggest difference between these first two meetings is the addition of Dieng (10.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG), who missed the Nov. 24 meeting with a wrist injury. The 6-foot-11 center is a monster defender, averaging 2.5 BPG and 1.4 SPG for the season. In the NCAA Tournament, he's scored 10.0 PPG on a near-perfect, 14-of-16 shooting (88%) with 6.3 RPG, 2.0 BPG and 1.7 SPG. He must collect offensive rebounds and shut down Plumlee to help the Cardinals avoid the same fate they suffered last time.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
