NCAA Championship 2013 Free Pick: Michigan vs. Louisville

When it comes to Monday night’s NCAA Championship 2013 free pick, the public edge is slightly on Michigan to at least cover the +4 spread.  Bet this game at BetOnline and receive up to $900 in FREE WAGERS – see site for details.

Louisville comes into this game as the overall number one in the tournament and they have certainly earned that title.  Michigan plays in the final as a number 4 seed. 

The Cardinals value went down slightly after narrowly squeaking by huge underdog Wichita State Saturday evening.  Hence, the public money coming in on the Wolverines spread.

The Cardinals are 10-2 Against The Spread in their last 12 games overall and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Interestingly though, they are just 1-6 Against The Spread in their last 7 meetings vs. Big Ten teams.

It's just hard to see Louisville unable to cover the 4 point spread here.

ESPN.com notes that Michigan's 9.37 turnovers per game average is the best all-time in UM history and leads the nation, but Louisville is second in the nation in steals, at 10.8. Its foes turned the ball over an average of 18.4 times per game this season.

Louisville’s offense will be especially hard for the Wolverines to overcome as the Cardinals have made 53.2 percent of their shots in five NCAA tournament games -- and 49.4 percent in their eight postseason games.

One must also seriously consider the OVER 138 in this championship game.

Check out these recent total trends:

The Over is 17-8-1 in Wolverines last 26 non-conference games.

The Over is 9-0 in Cardinals last 9 overall.

The Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Over is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 non-conference games.

The Over is 11-0 in Cardinals last 11 neutral site games.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com