Packers vs. Bears Point Spread
Carrie Stroup here with your Packers vs. Bears point spread. Be sure to claim your FREE $100 BET at Sportsbook.com here and remember you can wager on every play of this game right up to the final minute with LIVE IN-PLAY BETTING.
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -3 (-115) & 53.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -2.5 & 53
The NFC North division will be decided on Sunday when the Bears host the Packers, who will finally get star QB Aaron Rodgers back on the field.
Rodgers will start on Sunday for the first time since suffering a broken collarbone when these teams met in Week 9, a 27-20 Chicago win. That was just the third time in 12 meetings that the Packers lost in this series when Rodgers started. Bears QB Jay Cutler did not play in that game, but will start on Sunday despite a 1-8 record, 9 TD and 17 INT versus Green Bay in his career. Despite the Packers' series dominance, they are 2-4-1 ATS on the road this year, where they allow 31.3 PPG on 394 total YPG. They are also 1-8 ATS versus poor passing defenses (7+ YPA allowed) in the past two seasons. Bettors can also fade the Bears as well, as they are 1-5-1 ATS at home this season and 1-9 ATS versus good offenses (350+ total YPG) in the past two years. In addition to Rodgers, the Packers should also have the services of top RB Eddie Lacy (ankle), and WR Randall Cobb, who is on track to play for the first time since breaking his leg in Week 6. But the defense will not be at full strength with OLB Clay Matthews (thumb) doubtful, and DT Ryan Pickett (knee), LB Nick Perry (foot) and DE Mike Neal (abdominal) all considered questionable. Chicago is in much better shape injury-wise, as S Chris Conte (head) is questionable, but LB Lance Briggs (shoulder) has been upgraded to probable.
Green Bay has been without Aaron Rodgers for nearly half the season, but the offense still ranks fourth in the NFL in total yards (395 YPG) and ninth in scoring (25.6 PPG). They have shown an excellent run/pass balance with 132 rushing YPG (7th in NFL) and 264 passing YPG (8th in league). Rodgers has thrown for 8.8 YPA with 18 sacks taken, which is a big improvement from his 7.8 YPA and 51 sacks taken in 2012. He has loved facing Chicago in his career, completing 68% of his passes for 2,757 yards (7.6 YPA), 19 TD and 8 INT. In his past two visits to Soldier Field, Rodgers has thrown for 588 yards (8.0 YPA), 6 TD and only 1 INT. He has plenty of receivers to choose from, with five players catching at least 30 passes this year. That does not include WR Randall Cobb, who has tallied 1,332 receiving yards and 11 TD in 20 games over the past two seasons. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy (1,112 rush yards, 4.2 YPC, 10 TD) ran all over the Bears for 150 yards on 22 carries (6.8 YPC) in the Week 9 defeat, and has galloped for 225 yards on 36 rushes (6.3 YPC) and 3 TD in his past two games. With Chicago's awful run defense struggling to stop anybody, the team is expecting big things from Lacy and backup RB James Starks (405 rush yards on 5.2 YPC, 4 total TD). Green Bay's defense has not really shined in any area this season, allowing 374 total YPG (26th in NFL) on 249 passing YPG (21st in league) and 125 rushing YPG (26th in NFL). The unit has a below average red-zone defense (58% TD rate, 20th in league) leading to 26.7 PPG allowed (24th in NFL). But on the bright side, the Packers' defense has been much more successful in forcing turnovers with 10 takeaways over the past four weeks. With Green Bay recording 21 defensive interceptions in the past 10 meetings in this series, Chicago QB Jay Cutler will have to more careful with his throws.
The Bears have been thriving on offense all season with 27.8 PPG (T-3rd in NFL) and 384 total YPG (8th in league). The air attack has compiled 270 YPG (5th in league) on 7.3 net yards per pass attempt, while the ground game has a pedestrian 114 rushing YPG (18th in NFL), but ranks eighth in the league with 4.5 yards per carry. QB Jay Cutler (2,395 pass yards, 7.2 YPA, 17 TD, 11 INT) has his highest passer rating (88.1) in his five seasons in Chicago, and has been especially sharp in five starts at Soldier Field where he has thrown for 1,404 yards (281 YPG), 7.8 YPA, 10 TD and 4 INT. Cutler has the NFC's best receiver duo to utilize in WRs Brandon Marshall (1,221 rec. yards, 11 TD) and Alshon Jeffery (1,341 rec. yards, 7 TD), while TE Martellus Bennett (744 rec. yards, 5 TD) and RB Matt Forte (547 rec. yards, 2 TD) have provided reliable options for shorter throws. The underrated Forte has rushed for 1,229 yards (4.6 YPC) and seven scores this season, and has usually played well versus Green Bay in his career, totaling 1,156 total yards (but only 2 TD) in 11 meetings of this rivalry. In the Week 9 win, Forte tallied 179 total yards (125 rushing, 54 receiving) and a touchdown. While the offense has been carrying this team, Chicago's defense has been dreadful, allowing 29.7 PPG (3rd-worst in NFL) and 389 total YPG (4th-worst in league), including an NFL-worst 162 rushing YPG on an NFL-worst 5.4 YPC. The unit's red-zone efficiency (59% TD rate, 22nd in NFL) and third-down defense (41%, 23rd in league) have also been subpar, and after forcing a league-high 44 turnovers last season, that number has dipped to 26 this year, with just nine takeaways in the past nine games combined.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
