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BetDSI.com has your 2015 NCAA Tournament East Region odds to win.
There are two main favorites in this region. Villanova finished the conference tournament portion of the season in the top 60 in shooting percentage, the top 50 in two-point shooting, and the top 50 in three-point shooting. The Wildcats showed an ability to score and defend: They were a top-20 team in points scored per possession, and a top-40 team in points allowed per possession. They shared the ball well, finishing in the top 30 in assists per game. They were a top-90 team in terms of field goal defense, and the top 100 in two-point field goal defense.
Virginia was not a very good offensive team, only a tolerably average one. The Cavaliers were in the top 80 in shooting percentage, the top 100 in two-point percentage, and the top 115 in three-point percentage. The Cavaliers did well by limiting mistakes and increasing efficiency. They were in the top 50 in points per possession and the top 20 in turnovers committed per game. They just didn’t give points or possessions away, and that matters. Virginia then cranked it up on defense: The Cavaliers finished in the top 10 in points allowed per possession, and they similarly ended up in the top 10 in field goal percentage defense and two-point defense. The Cavaliers were a top-35 team in terms of three-point shooting defense, and they ended up in the top 50 in rebound percentage.
Villanova is so good because it has so many guards who can handle the ball, break down defenses with dribble penetration, and hit three-point shots. Virginia is so strong because its defense is able to hold down opponents even when the Cavaliers are going through a prolonged drought of their own on offense. These are two different teams, with highly contrasting styles, but they’re both excellent in their own ways. Neither team seems to have gained a set of possible opponents which could really overwhelm them.
Sleepers/Longshots
There’s a chance that either Oklahoma or Louisville could make a run. Louisville finished in the top 40 in scoring defense this season. The Cardinals have a big man in Montrezl Harrell who could give Villanova fits in a possible Sweet 16 matchup. Oklahoma wasn’t as good as Louisville was in terms of scoring defense, but the Sooners were in the top 100. Oklahoma also finished in the top 90 in scoring offense this season. Both teams, if they get hot, could become extremely hard to deal with.
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Who Will Win?
This is a region in which Virginia might have the best team but also the hardest early-round opponent when it faces Michigan State in a potential third-round game. Yet, Virginia has such a good defense that it can overcome its own weaknesses. The Cavaliers are much tougher than Villanova and will win the region.
