Royals vs. Blue Jays Betting Line – July 30
Carrie Stroup here with your Royals vs. Blue Jays betting line for Thursday.
Sportsbook.ag Line Toronto -141, Kansas City +131, Total: 8.5
The potent Toronto Blue Jays offense looks to outduel the top team in the AL when they host the Kansas City Royals on Thursday night
The Royals are well on their way to proving they are no one-hit wonders after an amazing run to the World Series last year and they currently hold a commanding nine-game lead in the AL Central. The All-Star break allowed them to reload and they have come out hot with a 9-5 record since July 17th. Most recently they took 2-of-3 from the Indians on the road, but failed to get the sweep on Wednesday with a big 12-1 defeat as the pitching staff gave up 18 hits; four of those leaving the park. With his third multi-hit game in a row, 1B Eric Hosmer (.315) continued to hit at a torrid pace, and since the break is 22-for-48 (.458) with three homers, 10 RBIs and nine runs.
Looking at the Blue Jays lineup, many would assume they were on pace to get into the postseason, but their pitching has held them back and they just clawed their way back to .500 after Wednesday’s victory. They’ve gone 6-5 since the break and were able to get the split against the Phillies in the short two-game set after an 8-2 win on Wednesday. The offense was just 4-for-13 with RISP, but had 16 hits with five going for extra bases. SS Troy Tulowitzki (.305) made a big splash in his debut, going 3-for-5 with two doubles, a homer, three RBIs and three runs and should give this club an embarrassment of riches on this side of the ball.
The pitching matchup will put LHP Danny Duffy (4-4, 4.03 ERA) up against RHP Marco Estrada (7-6, 3.55 ERA) of the host Blue Jays. Wednesday’s loss took Kansas City’s road record to 27-21 as they head to the dome in Toronto where they Jays are 29-20 in 2015. This matchup has been extremely even in the past three years with the two clubs splitting 16 games (8-8) played as Toronto holds a very slight 4-3 edge at home in that time. They did meet in Kansas City once already this year and the Royals took 2-of-3 in that series while grabbing the rubber-match in a barn burner by a score of 11-10.
Trends show that Kansas City is 43-22 (.662) against right-handed starters this year as the Blue Jays are 6-1 when on a streak of hitting a homer in 10 consecutive games in the past three seasons. OF Alex Gordon (Groin) continues to dot the injury report while on the DL for the Royals as 2B Devon Travis (Shoulder) is listed as questionable for Toronto.
Duffy certainly has the talent to be successful at the highest level, but his stats are showing a regression for the 26-year-old as his .239 BABIP from a year ago is balancing out while his strikeouts continue to drop. He has seen the number of batters that he whiffs go down in each of the past three seasons and the trend has continued with a career-low 5.7 K/9 on the year. His control (3.4 BB/9) has not been too great either as he leaves just 73.9% of runners on base. Despite having a mere eight strikeouts in 26.1 innings over his last four outings, Duffy has been able to lead his team to four consecutive wins with a quality start each time.
He’s seen this Toronto group three times in his career and has not fared well, going 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA (1.98 WHIP), but did great (6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 K) in a win earlier this month. The duo of OF Jose Bautista and C Russell Martin have combined to go 7-for-12 with three RBI against the young lefty, while on the other hand, both 1B Edwin Encarnacion and 3B Josh Donaldson are hitless in their nine total at-bats.
The Royals bullpen has been dominant once again, going 21-5 with a 2.19 ERA (1.07 WHIP) and is 34-for-47 (72%) in save opportunities. Greg Holland (3.13 ERA, 22 saves) has struggled of late with three runs allowed on seven hits over his last four outings (4 IP).
Estrada is an underrated pitcher in the big leagues as he aims for his third season in the past four years with a sub-3.00 ERA. With that said, he is moving in the wrong direction with both his career-low strikeouts (7.1 K/9) and worst control (2.9 BB/9) since 2010 when he pitched a meager 11.1 innings. One thing you can expect when Estrada is on the mound is for opposing hitters having a good chance at going yard with his 1.35 HR/9 career mark. In 2015, he is doing better in that aspect of the game, but is still allowing 1.00 HR/9. His last five outings have resulted in a poor 15:9 K/BB ratio over 26 IP with a record of 2-3.
The 32-year-old has met with Kansas City just once in his career and he took a loss despite pitching a solid game (6.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 2 K). In his limited at-bats, hot hitting 1B Eric Hosmer owned Estrada, going 3-for-3, as 2B Omar Infante (0-for-7) and 3B Mike Moustakas (0-for-4) have struggled in the matchup.
The relievers for Toronto have gone 12-19 with a 3.40 ERA (1.12 WHIP) and are successful in 16-of-32 (50%) save attempts. Roberto Osuna (2.23 ERA, 5 Saves) has an 8:1 K/BB ratio in his last five appearances (5.1 IP) and is 5-for-6 in his save chances.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
