Nationals vs. Mets Betting Line July 31

Carrie Stroup here with your Nationals vs. Mets betting line courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.ag. 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (54-46) at NEW YORK METS (52-50)                                     

Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -118, Washington +108, Total: 6.5                                                                   

An important NL East series begins when the Washington Nationals head to New York and take on the Mets at Citi Field.

The Nationals have still not dominated like most thought they would, but they currently hold a three-game lead in the division despite going a mere 6-7 since the All-Star break. Their last seven contests were on the road and they just salvaged a 3-4 record on the trip with consecutive wins over the Marlins in the past two days. The pitching staff held Miami to a mere two runs in those wins and that was needed in the 1-0 win on Thursday where the one run came off the bat of OF Ryan Zimmerman in the form of a solo homer. OF Bryce Harper has not slowed down and is riding an eight-game hitting streak in which he is 11-for-29 with two homers and four RBIs.

The Mets have definitely fallen off since their torrid start at the beginning of the year, but the elite pitching has kept them in the playoff race. Since the break, they are a meager 5-8, but have won in three of the last five games while hosting NL West opponents. Most recently, the Padres came to New York and won 2-of-3 games; including a close 8-7 victory on Thursday in which the Mets ‘pen allowed seven runs on seven hits over three innings. Despite 1B Lucas Duda going hitless in the loss, he has been on a tear of late and is 6-for-20 with six homers and seven RBIs in the last five contests.

Both teams have exceptional pitching staffs and for this one LHP Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 3.83 ERA) goes up against RHP Matt Harvey (9-7, 3.16 ERA) of the host club. Washington will continue its road trip and overall is 26-27 when away from home in 2015 while the New York is an impressive 35-18 in front of its fans. These teams have had plenty of meetings since the start of 2013, going against each other 48 times with the Nationals playing to a mark of 33-15 overall and dominating on the road in that time with a record of 19-5. They just played last week, and in that series, Washington took 2-of-3 games at home, outscoring the Mets 13-12.

Trends show that New York is a putrid 28-40 (.412) in night games this year as it has gone a very solid 23-5 (.821) at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in 2015. The injury report has OF Denard Span (Back) out for the Nationals while the Mets are playing without the services of OF Michael Cuddyer (Knee), C Travis d’Arnaud (Elbow) and 3B David Wright (Back).                                                                                  

Gonzalez is not the pitcher that he once was and he has seen his ERA rise in each season since 2012 when he first joined the Nationals. His strikeouts (7.8 K/9) are also at the lowest mark since 2010 and he continues to struggle with control (3.3 BB/9). One area that remains a positive is his ability to keep the ball in the park as opponents have hit a mere five homers over 105.2 IP (0.43 HR/9). Although his ERA has gone up recently, he still has performed well and should improve with batters hitting .339 BABIP; leading to a 3.17 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching). In his last five starts, Gonzalez has raised the level of his game; going 4-0 with seven runs allowed (5 ER) on 26 hits over 31 frames.

The lefty has had a ton of experience against the Mets in his career, going 9-4 (10-5 team record) with a 2.88 ERA (1.10 WHIP) and is 3-0 with two runs allowed on 13 hits while owning a 25:7 K/BB ratio over 20 innings in the last three meetings. Both OF Juan Lagares (10-for-22, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 4 RBIs) and 2B Daniel Murphy (8-for-23, 2 XBH, 1 RBI) have hit Gonzalez well, but 1B Lucas Duda and OF Curtis Granderson are a combined 6-for-44 (.136) with 13 strikeouts in the matchup.

The bullpen for the Nationals has gone 13-12 with a 3.34 ERA (1.25 WHIP) and are 32-for-44 (73%) in save chances. Jonathan Papelbon (1.55 ERA, 18 saves) earned his first save with his new team on Thursday and has yet to blow a save on the year.               

Harvey may have been surpassed as the top man in the rotation, but he is still an exceptional pitcher thanks to his fastball which averages just over 95 MPH. He has seen both his strikeouts (8.3 K/9) and walks (2.2 BB/9) get worse from last year’s phenomenal performance and he has just seven strikeouts in his last two starts (14 IP). Home runs have been a big problem for him in 2015 with 16 balls leaving the park over 125.1 innings (1.15 HR/9) and he has given up four in his last four outings. Harvey’s had a quality start in five of his last seven times on the mound and earned the win against the Dodgers most recently, going seven innings with two runs allowed on six hits.

He’s dominated the Nationals in seven career meetings, going 3-2 (3-4 team record) with a 1.34 ERA (0.94 WHIP) and had two scoreless starts against them this year before struggling (7 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 K, 4 BB) in the last matchup. SS Ian Desmond (5-for-17, 1 HR, 1 RBI) is one of the few Washington players that have had success against the young righty, but the power bat of OF Bryce Harper has been neutralized as he is hitless over 14 at-bats with seven strikeouts.

The relievers for New York have gone 12-10 with a 3.01 ERA (1.22 WHIP) and have been successful in 31-of-42 (74%) save attempts. Jeurys Familia (2.22 ERA, 27 saves) has five blown saves on the year and in his last two appearances has given up five runs on six hits.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter