MINNESOTA TWINS at TORONTO BLUE JAYS Betting Preview
The rebuilt Toronto Blue Jays continue their quest for the playoffs when they host the Minnesota Twins on Thursday night.
MINNESOTA TWINS (54-53) at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (57-52)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Toronto -165, Minnesota +150, Total: 8.5
Although they have fallen off recently, it has been a nice turn-around season for the Twins in 2015 and they remain in the wildcard hunt; currently two games behind the second spot. They are a meager 2-9 in the last 11 games and have failed to get anything going against these Blue Jays with losses in each of the first three games, while being outscored 17-9. Minnesota’s offense finally came together on Wednesday with seven runs on 10 hits, but could not keep Toronto’s batters at bay in the 9-7 loss. DH Miguel Sano (.278) has come as advertised, but has struggled recently; going 2-for-13 with seven strikeouts in the past four contests.
The Blue Jays grabbed a couple of elite names at the deadline and the early results are impressive as they are 7-1 since July 29th. In that time the offense has put up six runs per game and the pitching has also been quite solid; allowing two or fewer runs in three of the past four contests. They only had eight hits on Wednesday, but made the most of them with three leaving the park; including a grand slam off the bat of OF Jose Bautista (.235). Bautista may not be impressing with his average, but his production is still huge as he is fourth in the AL in RBIs (75), eighth in HRs (24) and still gets on base with an AL-best 70 walks.
The pitching matchup in this one will put RHP Kyle Gibson (8-8, 3.37 ERA) of the visiting Twins up against LHP Mark Buehrle (11-5, 3.32 ERA) of the host Toronto group. Even though Minnesota is over .500 this year, the team is a meager 20-31 when playing on the road and could be in line for another loss as the Blue Jays are a solid 35-21 at Rogers Centre in 2015. With these last three wins in this matchup, Toronto has pushed its advantage over the Twins to 11-7 since the start of 2013 and are 6-3 at home during that stretch. As usual, they are hitting the ball out of the park a ton and have seven homers so far during the first three contests of this series.
Some trends to watch include that Minnesota is 15-5 (.750) after four straight games without an error this year as the Blue Jays are 22-8 (.733) after three straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs in the last three seasons. Speedy OFs Byron Buxton (Thumb) and Jordan Schafer (Knee) remain on the DL for the Twins while 2B Devon Travis (Shoulder) is out for the host team.
Gibson had underwhelming results in his first two years with the ballclub, posting an ERA higher than 4.40 in each campaign with fewer than 5.4 K/9. He was able to get more than half of opposing batters to hit it on the ground in that time and had a decent 15-16 record though. Things have come together for the 27-year-old in 2015, and although he still has a pedestrian 6.3 K/9, his groundballs have remained solid (53.3%) and he has been able to keep 76.4% of runners on base. In his last nine outings, he has six quality starts, and looked great in his last game against the Mariners, going seven innings with two runs allowed on six hits as he struck out four (1 walk) in a no-decision.
In his two starts against the Jays, he is 1-0 (2-0 team record) with a 0.66 ERA (1.24 WHIP) and has already faced them this year in a no-decision (5.2 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 3 K). In limited at-bats, 3B Josh Donaldson (2-for-5) has done well against the righty, but the trio of 1B Justin Smoak, 3B Edwin Encarnacion and OF Jose Bautista are a combined 1-for-11 in the matchup.
The Twins bullpen has struggled, going 15-17 with a 4.06 ERA (1.30 WHIP) and are 31-for-38 (82%) in save chances. Glen Perkins (2.51 ERA, 29 saves) is first in the AL in saves, but has not been doing well of late with six runs allowed on nine hits and four home runs allowed in his last four appearances (3.2 IP).
Buehrle has made a great career out of being able to get the job done each time on the mound without ever being an “ace”. His career 5.2 K/9 would typically keep a guy out of the majors, but he has earned himself an impressive 210 career wins up until this point and is looking to post a sub-3.75 ERA for the fourth time in the last five seasons. He is one of the most reliable starters in the game, and has double-digit victories in each of the last 15 years, including 2015, while being on pace to go over 200 innings for the 15th consecutive time. Although the strikeouts are low (4.5 K/9), his control remains (1.3 BB/9) and he has been able to limit the homers (0.89 HR/9) despite playing in a hitter’s park. After a pedestrian first two months of the year, Buehrle has gotten hot with the summer and was huge in both June (2-0, 1.75 ERA) and July (3-1, 1.82 ERA) as he has taken just one loss since May 29th.
He has tons of experience against the Twins as a former member of the White Sox and has gone 29-19 (32-19 team record) with a 3.62 ERA (1.25 WHIP) against them as he pitched a complete game (9 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 K) in a win when facing them this year. C Kurt Suzuki has tagged the lefty for 12 hits in 37 at-bats (.387) with a homer and seven RBIs in his career, but the two players with the most experience against him, 1B Joe Mauer and OF Torii Hunter, are a poor 37-for-160 (.231) with four homers, 25 RBI and 24 strikeouts. T
he Jays have a reputation as having a poor pitching staff, but the relievers have combined to go 13-20 with a 3.35 ERA (1.10 WHIP) while being successful in a mere 20-of-37 (54%) save attempts. Roberto Osuna (2.22 ERA, 8 saves) is 8-for-9 in his save opportunities as he has tallied 53 strikeouts with 33 hits allowed over 48.2 innings of work.
