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Carrie Stroup here with your Notre Dame vs. Clemson spread. Sportsbook.ag Line: Clemson -1.5, Total: 53.5
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (4-0) at CLEMSON TIGERS (3-0)
Two of the top dozen teams in the nation will try to avoid their first loss of the season on Saturday night when No. 6 Notre Dame visits No. 12 Clemson.
The Fighting Irish have lost both their top passer (QB Malik Zaire) and top rusher (RB Tarean Folston), but continue to find ways to win with a 4-0 SU record (3-1 ATS). They have scored at least 30 points in all four victories including 62 in a five-touchdown shellacking of UMass last week. The well-rested Tigers will have had 15 days off since barely escaping Louisville with a 20-17 win on Sept. 17, which made them 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) heading into this showdown.
These schools have split two all-time meetings that occurred way back in 1977 and 1979, and bettors on both sides have plenty of reason for optimism. Notre Dame is a stellar 26-7 ATS (79%) in October road games since 1992, and 8-1 ATS on the road in Weeks 5-to-9 under head coach Brian Kelly. Clemson falls in the category of quick starting offensive teams (16+ PPG in first half) going 26-5 ATS (84%) at home where the line is +3 to -3 after holding three straight opponents to 17 points or less. The school is also 25-14 ATS (64%) in the first half of the season under head coach Dabo Swinney.
In addition to Zaire and Folston, the Irish still have plenty of injuries to contend with. TE Tyler Luatua (concussion) and DB Drue Tranquill (ACL) are both out, and DE Jay Hayes (suspension) and DB Avery Sebastian (foot) are both questionable for this matchup. But the passing game should get a nice boost with the probable return of WR Corey Robinson (539 rec yds, 5 TD last year) who missed last week's game with a knee injury. For the Tigers, their only recent injury is OL Ryan Norton, who injured his leg last week and is listed as questionable for Saturday.
Notre Dame's offense has been clicking all season with 41.0 PPG and 531 total YPG. The ground game has been particularly impressive with 285 YPG on a hefty 6.7 YPC. Senior RB C.J. Prosise has rushed for at least 98 yards in all four games, producing an even 600 yards and 8.1 YPC with six touchdowns. This includes three straight weeks of 149+ yards and 9.0+ YPC.
If Clemson chooses to stack the box, the pressure will be on sophomore QB DeShone Kizer, who has been solid this season with a 68% completion rate, 541 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. In his two full games, he has thrown for 449 yards and rushed for another 48. Superstar WR Will Fuller, who opened the season with three straight games of 120+ receiving yards, before posting a modest 57 yards in last week's blowout, has certainly aided Kizer's progression. Fuller averaged only 14.4 yards per catch last year, but has bolstered that to an impressive 20.6 this season. The probable return of WR Corey Robinson should help keep the double teams away from Fuller.
Defensively, Notre Dame has held opponents to 19.7 PPG and 342 YPG, and has been strong in all facets. The unit allows 138 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC, and 204 passing YPG on 6.1 YPA and a low 53% completion rate. The one negative is that the Irish have produced only three takeaways all season, and they will likely have to force the issue more against a potent Tigers offense.
Clemson has churned out 36.7 PPG and 442 total YPG this season, but was held to 20 points and 401 yards in his last game at Louisville. Although sophomore QB Deshaun Watson has played well, evidenced by a 74% completion rate, 8.2 YPA and seven touchdowns, he has already thrown more interceptions this year (3) than last season (2). Two of those picks came last game at Louisville, and he can't afford to turn the ball over on Saturday. He also needs to get top WRs Artavis Scott (9.4 yards per reception) and Ray-Ray McCloud (8.7 yards per reception) in more catch-and-run situations to increase their average gains.
The Tigers ground game has been sufficient with 188 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and six touchdowns. Most of that production is due to junior RB Wayne Gallman, who has rushed for 310 yards (5.8 YPC) and 3 TD. He carried the football 24 times at Louisville, resulting in 139 yards on 5.8 YPC.
The Tigers defense has been tremendous all season in holding opponents to 12.3 PPG and 261 total YPG on an impressive 3.9 yards per play. Opposing rushers have just 115 YPG on 2.9 YPC, which includes Louisville's 28 carries for 19 yards on Sept. 17. The unit has been even stingier against opposing passers, as quarterbacks have completed a paltry 43% of their passes for 146 YPG (5.4 YPA). After not forcing a turnover in the season opener versus Wofford, Clemson has racked up six takeaways over the past two contests.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
