Written by :
Published on :
Carrie Stroup here with your Patriots vs. Cowboys spread for Week 5 of the NFL. Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -9.5, Total: 50
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-2)
New England (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) heads out of its bye week seeking to stay undefeated atop the AFC East, while Dallas (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tries to stop the bleeding after dropping its past two games. The Cowboys lead the all-time series between the teams 7-4, but the Patriots have won the past four meetings dating back to 1999.
New England holds the edge in matchup trends this week too, as the club is 35-18 ATS against excellent offensive teams (6+ yards per play) since 1992, and 6-0 ATS after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the past two seasons (the Patriots dominated the Jaguars 51-17 in Week 3). However, Dallas has a few coaching trends in its favor, as head coach Jason Garrett is 22-10 ATS as an underdog since he’s been with the Cowboys, and 11-2 ATS when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.
New England enters this week’s game mostly healthy, with newly-acquired LB Jon Bostic listed as probable. Dallas has been decimated by injuries this season, already having lost star QB Tony Romo (collarbone) through at least Week 11 and WR Dez Bryant (foot) indefinitely. WR Brice Butler (hamstring) and LB Sean Lee (concussion) were injured in last week’s game against New Orleans and are questionable for Week 5, while RB Lance Dunbar (knee), who has been instrumental in the passing game, is out for the season.
There’s a glimmer of hope for the Cowboys though, as DE Greg Hardy and LB Rolando McClain are ready to return to action after serving suspensions to start the year.
The QB Tom Brady-led New England offense has started the season with a bang, leading the league in points scored (39.7 PPG), total yards per game (446.3), first downs per game (29.7), passing yards per game (359.3), and passing touchdowns per game (3.0), while committing only two turnovers. WR Julian Edelman (30 rec, 2 TD) and TE Rob Gronkowski (16 rec, 4 TD) have been the biggest recipients of Brady’s largesse, with journeyman RB Dion Lewis playing an effective and consistent role in the passing game as well (15 rec, 179 yards).
The Patriots’ defense has held their opponents to a middling 23.3 PPG (17th in NFL), a deficiency that’s far outweighed by their prodigious offense. New England’s pass defense has lost a step after the offseason departure of CB Darrelle Revis, allowing an average of 252 YPG and two touchdowns per game (25th in NFL), but have still generated five interceptions.
The Dallas offense has slightly shifted away from the passing game in the wake of a spate of injuries that left backup QB Brandon Weeden to commander a receiving corps led by the ever-reliable veteran TE Jason Witten (25 rec, 2 TD). The Cowboys’ running game has been led by the uneven performance of RB Joseph Randle, who racked up 87 yards and 3 TD in Week 3 against the Falcons and followed it with a 26-yard performance a week later on the road at New Orleans.
Dallas’ defense has been a mixed bag, performing better than average in preventing passing touchdowns (6th in NFL) and limiting rushing yards per attempt (3.7, 6th in NFL). But the Cowboys reside towards the bottom of the league in generating turnovers (24th in NFL) and preventing rushing touchdowns (28th in NFL). They have allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 256 YPG with a whopping 67% completion rate.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
