Sportsbook.ag Tuesday NCAAB Betting Preview
No. 4 Kansas and No. 13 Michigan State play for the third time in four seasons on Tuesday night when they meet in the Champions Classic in Chicago.
MICHIGAN ST SPARTANS (1-0) vs. KANSAS JAYHAWKS (1-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kansas -5.5, Total: 152.5
While the Jayhawks and Spartans aren’t conference rivals, there’s a sense of familiarity around this matchup. Part of this is due to Kansas coach Bill Self being an old rival of Spartans coach Tom Izzo from Self’s time at Illinois. Part of this is also due to Kansas and Michigan State having played each other in 2012 (in the second edition of the Champions Classic) and also 2014. The teams split those games, with Kansas the most recent victor, 61-56, last season in the championship of the Orlando Classic and Michigan State winning 67-64 in the second edition of the Champions Classic (Atlanta, 2012). Senior team leaders F Perry Ellis (13.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) have played in both of these games for Kansas and Michigan State, respectively.
Historically, Michigan State is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS versus Kansas since 1999. The Spartans reached yet another Final Four under Izzo in 2014-15, but fell woefully short against the eventual National Champions, Duke. Kansas also fell short in the NCAA Tournament, albeit much earlier, upset by in-state darling Wichita State in the Round of 32 after a 27-9 season. Both Michigan State and Kansas won their opening games of 2015-16 in convincing fashion, by 27 and 37 points respectively.
For Michigan State, F Marvin Clark Jr. (4.5 PPG) and F Gavin Schilling (5.1 PPG) are out with injuries. Highly touted freshman F Cheick Diallo is still dealing with eligibility issues and looks to be out for Kansas on Tuesday evening.
Gone from Michigan State’s Final Four team of a year ago are Branden Dawson and Travis Trice, and while replacing them with just two players would be impossible, coach Tom Izzo always seems to have a quiet confidence about the guys coming back.
The main cog of those that return is Denzel Valentine, the senior leader and loudest voice outside of Izzo. The 6-foot-5 burly guard can impose his will on the game even without scoring, filling the box score with rebounds, assists, and getting the crowd pumped up with hustle plays. In the Spartans’ 82-55 opening-night win over FAU, Valentine had 13 points, eight rebounds and nine assists.
The cast behind Valentine is less proven, and will most likely be much better in March, as most Izzo teams are. Sharp-shooting G Bryn Forbes (8.5 PPG, 43% threes) returns for his second season after transferring to East Lansing, and provides a great complement for Valentine to kick the ball to and punish the defense from behind the arc. Six-foot-9 senior F Matt Costello (7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) also returns and should have added scoring responsibility, as judged by his 15 points in 19 minutes in the win over FAU.
Izzo is hoping for big things from West Virginia transfer G Eron Harris (17.4 PPG in 2013-14), but Harris will have to buy in to Izzo’s defense-first philosophy if he wants to play more than the 17 minutes he got on Friday night. The Spartans are also encouraged by the play of McDonald’s All-American freshman F Deyonta Davis, who put up a double-double of 13 points and 11 rebounds on Friday night.
With all the buzz around “will he” or “won’t he” in regards to the eligibility status if Diallo, the Jayhawks that are on the floor did a pretty good job of selling themselves as the No. 4 team in the nation on Friday night, pummeling Northern Colorado 109-72. Five Kansas players finished in double-figures in that contest, including the aforementioned Ellis, who’s one of those guys who feels like he’s been on campus for seven years. Ellis led all scorers with 17 points in last November’s win over Michigan State, going 7-for-15 from the field.
Looking to rebound from an 0-for-10 performance from the field last season versus the Spartans will be junior G Wayne Selden Jr. (9.4 PPG, 2.6 APG). Selden, who was recruited alongside former No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins, has had possibly unreasonably high expectations for production during his time in Lawrence. He may never be the star that takes over Wiggins’ place, but consistent production will be needed from Selden for the Jayhawks to fulfill their championship aspirations this season.
Selden’s junior classmate, G Frank Mason III (12.6 PPG, 3.9 APG) is the floor leader for the Jayhawks and the guy coach Bill Self goes to in the clutch. Mason III is arguably Kansas’ best outside shooter at 43% from three and can ice a game at the charity stripe, too (79% FT).
Adding another dimension to the Jayhawks backcourt (that the Spartans haven’t seen from last season), will be sophomore G Devonte’ Graham (5.7 PPG). Graham gives Kansas an extra gear when it opts for a smaller lineup, as Self realizes that even though Mason is the starting point guard, Graham is one of the team's most talented players and needs consistent minutes. Graham responded with 13 points and eight assists in the opener, while cracking the starting lineup.
Keep an eye out for junior G Brennan Greene (5.7 PPG, 40% threes), as the lanky wing dropped 18 points in 14 minutes without a miss (6-of-6 FG, 5-of-5 threes) on Friday night.
