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The large majority of professional athletes are young, mostly inexperienced and undisciplined, and like to have fun when they can.
So what happens when their team visits a city with some thriving nightlife and lots to do?
Add to the fact that the game they are scheduled to play in that town is a matinee game the following day and you are describing the “Hangover Theory”.
If you’re an online bookie, you need to consider this theory when taking bets for your weekend games to avoid any surprises.
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The Hangover Theory
The idea of the Hangover Theory is that the visiting team had a bit too much fun the previous night and came to the game the next day battling a bit of a hangover.
So how does this truly impact the actual results of the contests?
Should online bookies be wary of weekend games in cities like Chicago, LA, and NYC?
The Hard Facts
Statistically, is there truly an advantage for the home team in these type of matinee contests?
Is the O/U affected over the long haul?
A cursory look at this for NBA teams over the last 15 years or so shows that their isn’t much of an advantage.
However, it is most likely possible that there is more unpredictability to these games and the players involved due to the “Hangover Theory”.
Betting on this unpredictability is most likely not a sound strategy, but it’s an important factor for online bookies to consider.
You can also look at the reverse side and argue that it could be possible for the home team to be affected by this theory as well.
Is it not true that the home team also has young, mostly inexperienced and undisciplined players who like to have fun on a Saturday night in their own big city?
Absolutely.
So where does that leave us, should we fear the “Hangover Betting Strategy”?
The facts don’t lend quite enough credibility to actually avoid the weekend matinees, but a great bookie (and a profitable one) takes all factors into account when keeping their book balanced.
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