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Casual bettors love NFL favorites. Pro bettors often times take the contrarian view. There are 3 possible contrarian betting views that per head agents and online bookies should know about.
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Going against the NFL’s top teams ATS
This sounds crazy, right? Notice that the language says, “going against the NFL’s top teams ATS”. What it means is that pro bettors almost always take the view that since the public bets heavily on favorites in NFL games, backing the underdog is the way to go. This was apparent with the New England Patriots in 2015. Counting the playoffs, the Pats were favored in 17 out of 18 games. The Pats ATS record was 8-9-1.
Online bookies should expect their casual bettors to continue wagering on the top NFL teams to cover the spread. Pro bettors will continue to go against those top NFL teams.
Betting on team’s on a losing streak
Losing streaks can scare any NFL bettor, whether pro or casual. The problem with losing streaks is that you never know when they’re going to end. Pro bettors always start with a fair value assessment. So, in this case, a pro bettor is going to look at the movement on the line, the movement that the early money caused before deciding what odds the pro will accept before backing that team against the spread.
When it comes to the NFL, this is easy to do. The NFL is the most bet upon sports league in the world. Casual bettors jump on favorites, meaning that they’ll lay off a team amidst a losing streak, while pro bettors will wait to see where the value goes. The best way for pay per head agents to handle this situation is to layoff if too much money ends up one side or the other.
Betting on non-playoff teams
Betting on non-playoff teams may not sound like a good strategy. After all, the reason that a team makes the playoffs is because it’s better than its peers. That is often the case. But the NFL is a league of parity. Would the Carolina Panthers have only lost a single game during the regular season if they hadn’t had such an easy schedule? Probably not.
This is a new season. Pro bettors understand this. That’s why they’re going to look at things from a different point-of-view than they did last season. They don’t care if a team made it to the playoffs last season. Casual bettors, on the other hand, will jump all over playoff teams from last season against the spread. Don’t be fooled by this. Again, layoffing and possibly setting max betting limits on each NFL game could help pay per head bookies manage these NFL bets.
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