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(minus = favorite/up) Florida: Clinton -2.5, Ohio: Trump -2, NC: Clinton -1, Nevada: Clinton -6, NH: Clinton -3, MI: Clinton -5, PA: Clinton -5, Utah: Trump -4.5, Arizona: Trump -2.5, Iowa: Trump -4, Colorado: Clinton -5, Virginia: Clinton -7, Wisconsin: Clinton -7, Alaska: Trump -5.5, Minnesota: Clinton -8, Georgia: Trump -6.
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The Gambling911.com Betting Market Report for the 2016 US Presidential Election between GOP nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton shows Trump leading by a comfortable margin (outside the margin of error) in Iowa (-4) but his leads in Ohio (-2) and Arizona (-2.5) remain fragile. These numbers were available as of Monday morning November 7, one day before Election Day.
Clinton leads in most critical swing states but she also is in fragile territory in Florida (-2.5), North Carolina (-1) and New Hampshire (-3).
There were some fairly significant differences between the betting market numbers and recent poll averages. Nevada (-6), in particular, was overwhelmingly favored for Clinton in the betting markets by an even greater margin than those states that were not even considered close just over a week ago including Michigan and Pennsylvania. Some polls coming into the weekend had Trump leading in the Silver State.
Likewise, the betting markets, while still holding Clinton within the margin of error, had the former Secretary of State up 2.5 points in the state of Florida compared to most polls that had this one a virtual tie.
A state widely ignored by political pundits, Utah, was still very much in play according to the betting markets. It fell just outside the margin of error at -4 but this is a three-way race that includes former CIA operations officer and independent candidate Evan McMullin, who is clearly chipping away at the Republican base. The Rasmussen poll had McMullin within 1 percentage point of Trump just two weeks ago. Most recent polls do have the real estate magnate up 5 to 6 points but any shift in voting for either McMullin or Clinton could close that gap. From a betting perspective in terms of strategy, a small bet on Clinton should be considered in Utah as she would pay out US$160 on a US$10 bet in a state with a formidable three-way race where Clinton could tip the scales even if she were to get just over 30 percent of the vote.
New Mexico has been mentioned in the mix but was up -10.5 points in the betting markets. Texas at times has been designated as “Republican Leaning” due to its changing demographics but was up over 11 points in the betting markets and appeared to be well out of play.
On Sunday, FBI Director James Comey told lawmakers the agency still believes Hillary Clinton should not face criminal charges following a review of new emails.
William Hill spokesperson Graham Sharpe revealed to our own Thomas Somach that a spike in Clinton bets had come in following the Comey Sunday statement.
"The news has sparked a run of bets for Hillary, so we have taken rapid evasive action in case the heavy hitters come in to place more five- and six-figure bets like the ones we already have for her to win," Sharpe said. "That includes bets of 550,000 euros, 183,200 pounds, 50,000 pounds and a couple of 30,000-pound wagers," Sharpe said.
By Monday morning, the betting markets had Clinton at -5 or with odds of 1-5 to become the next US President.
The US Presidential Elections is the single most wagered on non-sporting event in the world and this one was expected to shatter all previous records.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
