Odds on Whether California Secedes From the US
Following the shock upset win of Donald Trump to become the next US President, one of the biggest stories Wednesday involved California potentially seceding from the United States.
Odds of this happening would be extremely long but Dave Mason of BetOnline said he may consider taking bets on this should it grow legs. Mason’s book shattered all previous records with the 2016 US Presidential race for wagering on a non-sporting event. We will keep readers updated if or when BetOnline offers odds on a California departure from the Union.
Trump, a Manhattan real estate magnate who has never served in a political position, won the College Electoral vote Tuesday to become the 45th President of the United States. His opponent, Hillary Clinton, won the popular vote, overwhelmingly in California.
From the Guardian:
The campaign for independence – variously dubbed Calexit, Califrexit and Caleavefornia – has been regarded as a fringe movement. But support was revitalized by influential Uber investor and Hyperloop co-founder Shervin Pishevar, in a series of tweets announcing his plans to fund a “legitimate campaign for California to become its own nation” – posted even before the full results were in.
“We can re-enter the union after California becomes a nation. As the sixth largest economy in the world, the economic engine of the nation and provider of a large percentage of the federal budget, California carries a lot of weight,” he said.
Pishevar was supported by others in Silicon Valley. Angel investor Jason Calacanis said that California succession would be simple in the wake of both Brexit and a Trump win.
Trump’s win stunned pollsters, media pundits and betting markets alike, however, on average over the past three months the betting markets did have Clinton as a -175 to -200 favorite to win and she did so with the popular vote a mere 1 percent. A +2 underdog winning is typically not considered a very big upset in betting parlance. Books got overly optimistic 72 hours leading into Election Day, cutting Clinton's odds all the way to 1-5 following an influx of bets on the Democratic nominee.
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