Do NBA Playoff Player Injury Matter to Pay Per Head Agents?
Injuries are a part of the NBA and on the whole, bookmakers do not overreact to player injuries during the season.
But what about an NBA Playoff player injury? Surely, that has to matter more to pay per head agents than a regular season injury, right?
Well, the answer is yes and no. Many times, a sportsbook takes into account the injury and is often one step ahead of everyone else. Sportsbooks, like the sports media, react instantaneously, so there may not be much visible movement on the NBA game lines prior to tipoff.
NBA Playoff Player Injury: From Fav to Underdog
When a star player goes down, like Chicago Bulls' Rajon Rondo, then things can take a dramatic turn. The Bulls won the first two games of their seven-game series with Boston in the NBA Playoffs. The Bulls won both in Boston, dominating the Celtics.
But when news of Rondo's freshly injured right thumb – his shooting hand – was released ahead of game 3, the Bulls went from a two-point favorite to an underdog.
In all, the online bookies shifted the Bulls into a four-point swing thanks to the NBA Playoff player injury.
The Celtics won game 3 and 4 to tie the series at 2-2. Rondo has worked out to prepare for game 5, but isn't expected back until game 6.
Why Does Rondo's Injury Matter?
Online bookies and bettors saw Rondo's injury as a massive disadvantage for betting on the Bulls. Chicago is the eighth seed in the east and without Rondo to run the team's offense, the Bulls lack the creativity he brings to the court.
Rondo's 7.8 points per game paled in comparison to his team leading 6.7 assists a night. Without him running the offense, the Bulls don't have the same spark against the east's best team. The Bulls transition offense just isn't quick enough without the former NBA All-Star.
Compared to the always underachieving and always overrated Los Angeles Clippers, who are one game from elimination, the Bulls playoff player injury matters more.
The Clippers lost Blake Griffin due to a toe injury. His injury didn't change online bookies' opinion of the Clippers' chances, however.
The unwavering decision to keep Utah as favorites not only shows Griffin's lack of influence on the overall Clippers' playoff chances, but that his status as the NBA's most overrated big man is alive and well.
Playoff Player Injury to Watch
The most important playoff player injury to watch out for is the one that takes a key player from a team. Rondo is not easily replaceable within the Bulls' team. Griffin is replaceable in the Clippers' frontline.
If the same injuries happened in Golden State to Kevin Durant or Stephen Curry, don't expect lines to change much either.
The Warriors missed Durant for a full 19 games during the regular season and still went 15-5 in that time. Despite some struggles in the beginning, Curry and company righted the ship.
The first round of the NBA Playoffs are just about over and thus far the higher seeds have prevailed. If Utah can knock off the Clippers and Chicago can fight back against the Celtics to win the series, then 2017 will have its first upsets.
But right now, Utah look solid and the Bulls desperately need Rondo on the court.
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