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Gambling911.com resident bookmaker expert Tony Caliente breaks down the Cactus Bowl to determine if the line on this game is accurate.
Kansas State was coming in as the -7 favorite here and, get this, just days before this game the Wildcats were seeing nearly 90% of the betting action. In this scenario, one would anticipate the books moving beyond -7 to -7.5 or longer.
We haven't seen that yet but keep in mind this one opened at -2. Devon Monster will take over the starting quarterback role in place of Josh Rosen for UCLA. Rosen was worth 5 to 6 points on the line.
Yahoo Sports writes, in regard to Modster:
Rosen is a likely top pick in the 2018 NFL draft, though his choice to come out of college could depend on who holds the No. 1 pick. Modster started at Utah when Rosen missed the game because of a concussion suffered vs. Washington. Modster is 30-45 passing for 376 yards and two touchdowns this season. His limited sample-size quarterback rating is actually better than Rosen’s.
The College Football Betting Power Ratings already indicated a two-point underlay prior to news of Rosen not playing. Even if we are to assume Rosen is worth four points, the line on this game now should be at least Kansas State -8.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
