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When looking for the best bowl game bets for this season, it is important to understand the lines and that they are derived from the College Football Betting Power Ratings. However, one must never bet a game solely on these lines. Injuries are never factored into the Power Ratings in real time, only the lines themselves reflect key injuries. Keep in mind also that some teams that might otherwise be listed as the underdog based on these Power Ratings might play particularly well against a certain opponent.
Strategies Before Placing That Bowl Game Bet
While one does not want to rely solely on Power Ratings, they provide a good start in which to determine what a line should be. First, look for light shading such as one to two points in the line. If possible, find out how much action is on a particular side and whether the bookmakers are reactive to said action.
Our personal favorite of the 2017-2018 College Football Bowl season is the Citrus Bowl game between Notre Dame and LSU in which the Tigers are coming in as a -3 favorite while the Power Ratings indicate the Irish is the better team here, and should be favored by -4. The line was LSU -2 and the Tigers are missing some key players on defense. That number has since climbed to -3 in favor of the Tigers.
Key Bowl Games to Consider This Season
Below we have highlighted Power Ratings lines that are off from the actual line but by only a small margin or do not appear to be a result of injury impacts (at least early on). The team highlighted is not necessarily the one that has the advantage of winning, rather the highlighting is reflective of the aforementioned variation only. Case in point: In the Camping World Bowl, Oklahoma State should only be favored by 1.5 points according to the Power Ratings, therefore Virginia Tech would have some decent value as a +4.5 underdog. Nearly 70% of the early betting action was on Oklahoma State, yet the line continues to move in their favor. The main injury in this game is on the Hokies side (their best receiver, Cam Phillips, just underwent surgery to repairing a sports hernia). Just another thing that makes one wonder why linesmakers are not moving this line in the other direction in order to attract more action on VTech.
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- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
