Michigan vs Purdue College Basketball Pick, Prediction, Odds - January 25

The Michigan Wolverines travel to Mackey Arena to play the Purdue Boilermakers on Thursday, January 25, 2018. The opening line for this game has Purdue as 12.5 point favorites.  Raphael Esparza from Doc Sports breaks this one down and offers his pick for the Michigan vs. Purdue game.

Michigan heads into this matchup with a mark of 17-5. They currently have a point differential of 12.0 as they are averaging 74.5 points per contest while giving up 62.5 per game. Purdue has an overall record of 19-2. They are averaging 84.8 points per game and surrendering 62.2, good for a point differential of 22.6.

Valuable Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends

The Michigan Wolverines are 12-8 against the spread this season

The Michigan Wolverines are 8-13 against the over/under this year

Important Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends

The Purdue Boilermakers are 14-6 against the spread this season

The Purdue Boilermakers are 8-10 against the over/under this year

Key Michigan Wolverines Injuries

No key injuries to report

Key Purdue Boilermakers Injuries

12/22/17 F Eden Ewing Dismissed is out for season

Player Spotlight

Charles Matthews averages 14.6 points per game while playing 29.9 minutes per night this season. He pulls down 5.2 rebounds per game and dishes out 2.9 assists per game as well. His field goal percentage is 49% while his free throw percentage is at 54%. Moritz Wagner averages 14.3 points per game in 27.1 minutes per contest this season. He averages 0.7 assists per contest and 7.1 rebounds per game. His field goal percentage is 54% for the year while his free throw percentage is 71%.

Player Spotlight

Carsen Edwards averages 17.2 points per game while playing 27.1 minutes per contest this year. He grabs 4 rebounds per game and has 3.1 assists per contest on the year. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is at 80%. Vince Edwards averages 14.9 points per game this season and he sees the court an average of 30 minutes per contest. He also averages 7.8 rebounds per contest and 2.8 assists per game. His field goal percentage is 49% and his free throw percentage is 84%.

Useful Team Statistics

Michigan averages 74.5 points per contest this season, which ranks them 164th in the nation. Their average scoring margin is 12.0 and their shooting percentage is 47% as a team, which has them ranked 68th. Behind the arc they shoot 37%, which is good for 97th in the country. They average 33.5 rebounds per game and 15.3 assists per game, which ranks them 285th and 83rd in those offensive categories. In the turnover department they rank 346th with 9.8 per game. The Wolverines allow 62.5 points per game to their opponents which ranks them 11th in Division 1. They also allow a 43% shooting percentage and a 35% average from behind the arc, ranking them 150th and 200th in those defensive categories. Opponents average 32.0 rebounds a game which ranks 48th and they give up 10.2 assists per contest, which puts them in 17th place in college basketball. They force 14.1 turnovers per game which ranks them 224th in the nation.

Useful Team Statistics

Purdue is 19th in the country with 84.8 points per game this year. They are 12th in D-1 in shooting at 50%, while their average scoring margin is 22.6. They shoot 44% from 3-point range, which is good for 3rd in college basketball. They are 88th in the nation in rebounding with 37.7 boards per game, and 8th in assists per contest with 18.3. The Boilermakers are 301st in turnovers per game with 11.8. The Boilermakers surrender 62.2 points per contest, which ranks them 10th in the country. Their defense allows a 38% shooting percentage and a 32% average from 3-point range, ranking them 4th and 54th in those defensive statistics. They rank 44th with 11.4 assists allowed per contest and 88th with 33.0 rebounds surrendered per game. The Boilermakers are 176th in Division 1 in forcing turnovers with 13.6 per game this season.

Advanced Statistics

The Wolverines are 26th in the country in defensive rating with 93.7, and their offensive rating of 111.7 is ranked 54th. They are 326th in college basketball in pace with 66.3 possessions per 40 minutes, and their eFG% of 55% is 48th. As a unit they are 87th in the nation in true shooting percentage with 57% and they shoot 3-pointers on 43% of their shot attempts, ranking 62nd in D-1. Michigan is 344th in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 13 times per 100 possessions while forcing 18.9 on defense. Their defensive eFG% for the year currently is 48%, which is 88th in the country.

Advanced Statistics

Purdue is 292nd in college basketball in turnovers, as they turn the ball over an average of 14.7 times per 100 possessions while forcing 16.8 on the defensive end. Their defensive effective field goal percentage for the season currently is 43%, which is 6th in the nation. The Boilermakers are 6th in the country in offensive rating with 120.2, and their defensive rating of 88.2 is ranked 4th. In terms of pace they are 199th in Division 1 with 70.1 possessions per 40 minutes, and their effective field goal percentage of 59% is 6th. As a team they are 6th in D-1 in true shooting percentage with 62% and they shoot 3-pointers on 41% of their shots, ranking 99th in the nation.

And the pick for tonight is……..

Take Purdue -11.5 over Michigan (Thursday, Jan 25 7PM TV – ESPN2)

Thursday night the No. 3 team in the AP and Coaches Poll Purdue Boilermakers host the Michigan Wolverines in a BIG 10 Conference battle Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers are an outstanding 19-2 this season and have dominated their opponents winning 15-straight games. Not only have the Boilermakers been rolling teams since Thanksgiving but the Boilers have beaten 10 out of their 11 games by double-digits. Michigan comes to West Lafayette, Indiana winning some big conference road games but I’m sorry Michigan, the last time I checked Michigan St and Iowa were not Purdue.

Purdue will take control of this game in the second half and cover this double-digit number at home. The Boilermakers have a balance attack on offense and they have four guys that are averaging double-digits. Purdue’s guard Carsen Edwards had a big game against Iowa scoring 22 points and if he gets going early at home against the Wolverines he alone can carry the Boilermakers to an easy home ‘W’. These two BIG 10 conference opponents played at Michigan early this month and the Purdue Boilermakers stole that road game and Thursday night I see another Purdue victory and the Boilermakers prepare for Indiana on Sunday.  You can get more matchup reports and predictions for most college basketball games at Doc’s Sports. 

Raphael Esparza has more than 13 years of experience as a sportsbook manager at four of the biggest, most well-known sportsbooks on the Las Vegas Strip. He has more than 20 years of handicapping and gambling experience and more than two-decade’s worth of sports betting experience. His position has given him contacts and access to the sharpest lines and action in the industry.  Esparza has been one of the best College Basketball handicappers over the years and he is on his way to another winning season.