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We have a number of major exposures and some opinions for Sunday's NFL games.
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The Colts (-4.5) and the Steelers (-3) are the top bet on sides for the day.
Indianapolis plays in Jacksonville earlier Sunday. They opened as the -2.5 favorite and had moved as high as -4.5 at some books, but mostly to -4. Nearly all books were holding at -4. We are seeing a bit of an opinion here favoring Jacksonville in that few of the books are moving back to -4.5 with 75% of the action still on Indianapolis. Matchbook in the UK has even moved down to -3.5. No matter what, the books will see significant exposure here.
The Steelers will be a much greater exposure playing Sunday evening in primetime against the Chargers. In this one, Pittsburgh opened as a -3.5 favorite. All books were holding at -3 heading into the Sunday games. We don't expect the line to move down to -2.5. But keep in mind that, up until yesterday, a lot of the books were sitting on -3.5. This is a clear attempt to get more action on the Steelers despite seeing 63% of the spread action. You will want to bet the Chargers here at +3 (hopefully you were able to get them at +3.5).
The Falcons also present a decent size exposure for the books Sunday, getting 79% of the spread action as a -2.5 home favorite hosting Baltimore. Books opened with Atlanta as a +2.5 home dog. Now they are the -2.5 home favorite across the board. The line is moving in accordance with the action.
Elsewhere, the Panthers were seeing some decent action at 64% on the spread as a -3.5 road favorite in Tampa Bay. The line here opened at -4 and has moved down to -3 at most books. Some of the sharper books had moved back up to -3.5 shortly before 11 am EST. We are not able to decipher a clear opinion as a result though we will say that Sagarin indicates the line should only be -1.5 favoring Carolina.
In Summary
Four significant exposures on Sunday's NFL games:
Colts - Major Exposure (mild opinion on Jacksonville)
Steelers - Major Exposure (significant opinion Chargers)
Falcons - Major Exposure
Panthers - Mild Exposure (slight opinion on Tampa Bay)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
