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Gambling911.com was giving the San Diego State Aztecs a 55% chance of covering the +2.5 spread Wednesday evening against Ohio. Note 7 pm EST Updates.
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Our Observation
While nowhere near the 70% chance we gave Carolina of covering Monday night against New Orleans, this one does have plenty of indications of an opinion across the board favoring San Diego State. Books opened at Ohio -3 with action skewed in their favor. Most have dropped to -2.5 and remained there. More importantly, all of the sharp books have followed suit. *Update 7 pm EST - Some sharp books move to -2
We are not entirely convinced there is enough volume on this game or enough one-sided action to warrant moving beyond that 55% chance of an Aztec cover. *Update 7 pm EST - Gambling911 was seeing significant inquiries coming in on this game
Furthermore, Sagarin suggests the line on this game should be Ohio -6.
*Update 7 pm EST - Gambling911.com has moved the Aztec's chances of covering the +2.5 line to 60%
Standout Trends
The Aztecs are 1-6 Against The Spread in their last 7 games overall, yet another reason why we find it surprising that the books are hanging on at Bobcats -2.5.
SDSU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
The Bobcats, on the other hand, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
They are also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.
Predictions
Experts are going against G911's suggestion that the Aztecs have a 55% chance of covering here.
ESPN.com's Will Harris:
"It's the first meeting between these two schools, but there are similarities these programs share. The matchup pits two of the most consistent Group of 5 powers, led by two of the sport's three oldest coaches -- both of whom carry impressive defensive backgrounds and potential Hall of Fame credentials. Rocky Long has had eight winning seasons in eight years at San Diego State, while Frank Solich hasn't had a losing season at Ohio in more than a decade. Yet despite their success, both have struggled in bowls -- Long with a 4-8 record, and Solich clocking in at 5-9.
"This year Solich has the advantage, mainly because his Bobcats are a more mature team with much better leadership and chemistry."
The weather will not be a factor as was previously addressed by some with temperatures hovering around the low 50's by game time.
About the Frisco Bowl
The Frisco Bowl is the name of a National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) sanctioned Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) college football bowl game that had its inaugural game played on December 20, 2017. It pits teams from The American Conference and is played in Frisco, Texas approximately 25 miles outside of Dallas. It features a $200,000 purse.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
