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Gambling911.com is giving the Baltimore Ravens a 60% chance of covering the spread against the LA Chargers Sunday.
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We are likeing the Ravens chances of covering in this critical game more and more Saturday, prompting us to move their chances from 55% Friday to 60% on Saturday, still a far cry from the 70% chance we gave the Panthers of covering the spread against New Orleans this past Monday.
Pinnacle and 5Dimes dropped the line down to -3.5 despite the favorites (LA) seeing more than 60% of the betting action.
Books holding at -4 were seeing 60% coming in, so one can only imagine how many bets will flow in on the Chargers at -3.5.
There are a few things keeping us from going entirely crazy backing a Ravens cover.
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For one, the books opinions have gotten them absolutely nowhere over this past week with a few of the College Bowl games where they were left exposed (i.e. the Ohio Bobcats shutout victory over San Diego State was big for the betting public and the books did everything possible to drive action towards Ohio).
Additionally, Sagarin indicates the line is pretty much on the money here at Chargers -4. It opened -4.5 and, as alluded to, has drifted to -3.5 at some of the sharper books.
There is also an argument to be made that some books were closer to a 58/42 betting ration and therefore will not see as much exposure here. This would normally be true if not for the high interest in this game and the fact that it will be played nationally in Primetime on the NFL Network (granted not everyone gets this). 55/45 action is still considered relatively impactful with the type of volume expected.
While the last three games between these two teams took place between 2013 and 2015, each was within three points.
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
