NFL Picks – 2018 Week 17 Fade The Public Play
Our fade plays against the public were bountiful last week with two of our three selections coming out winners for the third week in a row. We bought the Texans at +2.5 and I expected a win against the Eagles.
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A late field goal ended that chance and Philly kept its playoff hopes alive with a 32-30 victory, giving us a cover win. We also backed the Raiders in their final home game of the season and possibly the team’s last in Oakland. Feeding off the emotion, Oakland played a strong game knocking off the Broncos and we backed them despite the public going the other way. Sure, the Raiders are bad, but it looks like the Broncos quit on Vance Joseph.
Oddsmakers have set the lines for the Week 17 slate of NFL games, and now it’s time for the betting public to be heard. With a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye, the Rams are getting plenty of support for their tilt with the Niners. The other SoCal club is also an early favorite with nearly 80 percent of the action backing the Bolts in Denver.
Let’s take a look at a few Week 17 games to see where money can be won when going against the public on the early NFL betting lines at BookMaker.eu.
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Week 17 Fade the Public Plays
Baltimore Ravens ( -6 ) vs. Cleveland Browns
Both teams are on a heater heading into the season finale but it’s the Ravens feeling the pressure. The situation is simple – beat the Browns and win the AFC North title. But that’s not nearly as easy as it sounds. Baker Mayfield is a competitor and he’s given the Browns a swagger that’s been missing. And that’s rubbed off on his teammates. The Browns and Mayfield in particular have thrived since the team canned Hue Jackson, winning five of their last six games. Not only can the Browns play spoiler, they can also post a winning record for the first time since 2007.
The Ravens have won two in a row and five of six to surpass the Steelers for the top spot in the division. Lamar Jackson can cement his status as the team’s QB of the future by leading Baltimore back to the playoffs, and a majority of the early action is backing the home team. This matchup can easily play out like the first meeting, which the Browns won 12-9 in overtime. Baltimore will run the football and its defense will be tough, but Mayfield is the X-factor, keeping the Browns in the game with an upset on the radar.
Chicago Bears ( +5 ) at Minnesota Vikings
With all they’ve accomplished this season, it’s hard not to like the Bears. But they are in a tough spot and I anticipate Matt Nagy will look ahead to the postseason rather than investing a lot of energy in this one. The Bears have a slight chance of getting the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and that should be enough to start fast. But the odds are long and I expect the Bears to sit a number of starters in the second half if no earlier.
The Vikings don’t have that luxury and they need a win to reach the postseason. They should silence Chicago’s offense, which has struggled to score points the last few games. Keeping the Bears off the board will allow Kirk Cousins to lead at least one scoring drive, and that might be all it takes. The Bears are being backed by over 70 percent of the public on the early lines, but the Vikings are the more motivated club, and they’re playing at home.
Philadelphia Eagles ( -6.5 ) at Washington Redskins
The Eagles couldn’t have asked for a better finishing opponent as they try to squirm their way into the postseason. And Nick Foles is dealing his magic to put them in a spot to defend their title. There’s something about this team with Foles at the helm. Remember that miraculous run to the Super Bowl that earned Foles the game MVP? And he’s back at it with wins over the Rams and comeback over the Texans. The Eagles need some help but they also need to win, and they are getting the support of over 70 percent of the public on the early NFL betting line.
The Skins are getting 6.5 points on the current line and that doesn’t seem like enough. In case you were wondering about Washington, don’t. The Skins made it clear they are playing to the end by cutting one of their best defenders, a move that sends a clear message to the rest of the team. And Josh Johnson hasn’t looked bad after not playing for some time. Johnson is resurrecting his career and if not with the Skins moving forward, he’ll end up somewhere.
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