Today's Most Bet On - January 28: Public Loving the Warriors, G911 Liking the Pacers
Yesterday, Gambling911.com gave Purdue a 64% chance of covering what was essentially a PICK'EM game against Michigan State, and the Boilermakers came through big.
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Purdue's victory was a nice win for the books as 85% or more of the action was on MSU.
Today we see close to 90% of the early spread action on Golden State playing in Indiana.
The red hot Warriors are an -8.5 road favorite in this one, which on the surface may be considered nuts as the Pacers own a 32-16 record.
But the Pacers are now without star guard Victor Oladipo, who suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Books have been trending down a half point across the board. Some now have Indiana at -8.
They did beat Golden State, a team in the midst of an extended road trip, by a significant margin in both games last season. Previous to that they were owned by the Warriors.
Sagarin has yet to really factor in the injury to Oladipo. They currently indicate a line of Golden State -1.5. In other words, oddsmakers calculate Oladipo is worth 7 points, maybe more since he's been gone now for two games.
In the end, it's all about the obvious attempt by books to get more action on Golden State that demonstrates they have a strong opinion leaning towards the Pacers.
Bet365, Pinnacle and Bookmaker have all come down a half point despite the near 90% action on Golden State. 5Dimes has dropped from -9 to -8 this morning.
Myles Turner will likely be able to fill in the void to some degree, certainly enough to eat into the overshading with this line we would think. Whether they can keep winning remains to be seen.
Gambling911.com is giving the Pacers a 57% edge here, and that is enough for a play at +9 (still available as of this writing), but as this was being published, most books had come down to +8. We'd be giving the Pacers a better than 60% chance here if not for the uncertainties surrounding the post-Oladipo period. Note also that the Warriors just played a tough one in Boston two days ago and are likely running out of gas. Revenge is a factor here, but reaching an 8-point win margin will be tough.
The Warriors are not the only lopsided play. Duke was seeing 95% of the early action against Notre Dame as a -15 road favorite. This game wasn't seeing the type of action as the Warriors-Pacers. Some books were flirting with the -14.5 and -14. There is some indication that books have an opinion on Notre Dame but we won't be assigning an edge here.
Record So Far
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 7-5 (58.3%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 3-2 (60%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
