FSU vs. Gonzaga Free Pick, Betting Odds - March 28
Gambling911.com has your predictions for the FSU vs. Gonzaga game along with the latest odds.
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FSU - Ja Morant dazzled for a half, but the star point guard and 12th-seeded Murray State got run out of the NCAA tournament by Florida State.
Gonzaga - Gonzaga wins, 83-71. Baylor hung around, but Brandon Clarke (36 points, 8 rebounds, 5 blocks) was too much, and the Zags were able to hold the Bears to just 4 3-pointers — a quarter of what they hit in the Round of 64. - Alden Gonzalez, ESPN.
Predictions
Gonzaga wins if …
The Bulldogs don’t lose patience on offense and stick with consistently getting the ball to dangerous areas of the floor. We saw Saint Mary’s successfully strangle the Gonzaga offense in the West Coast Conference championship game, in which wing Zach Norvell shot 1 of 11 from the field trying to force action. He can be a game-changing offensive player, but he has to know when he’s changing it for the better. Clarke and Hachimura got only 14 shots combined in that game. FSU’s defense should be even more effective; those two cannot be sealed off from access to the ball.
Florida State wins if …
The Seminoles are able to prevent the Zags from turning this into a faster-paced game. FSU has three victories this month against teams still standing in the Sweet 16, and didn’t hit the 75-point mark in any of them. In a half-court game, the Seminoles could create a lot of discomfort for Perkins, who runs the show for Gonzaga and shot only 3 of 9 from the field when matched against FSU in this round a year ago. The Seminoles care less about who scores the points than any team in this tournament — not just in the sense of being unselfish, but in terms of having the ability to pick the matchup that works the best for that particular game. They’ll play nine or 10 players and they’ll get opportunities for those who make the most sense at the moment.
MORE: Why your team won't make the Final Four
Sweet 16 pick: Gonzaga
Action vs. Line Movement
The line has been moving up and down by trending from Gonzaga -6.5 to -7.5, which suggests that the Bulldogs are seeing more action on the spread early.
That's not the case. FSU is seeing 80% of the action. This could be an indication that the books believe Gonzaga will win by at least 8 points. Pinnacle Sports had the number at 8 for a hot minute, literally.
Nearly 70% of the money line action was on FSU also for them to win outright.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
