April 5 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews (Podcast)
Two of yesterday's trend edges we posted came through, but it is the one that did not that has us kicking ourselves.
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Blue Jays vs. Indians
Trend Edge: OVER
Yesterday we warned about taking the OVER and nearly (should have) taken the UNDER.
It was the Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez vs. Indians Trevor Bauer and the total went from 7 to 6.5. That movement we suggested with result in 6 or fewer runs scored.
5 runs were scored.
Bauer was pulled by manager Terry Francona after seven hitless innings and 117 pitches and sat in the dugout watching as Toronto's Freddy Galvis broke up Cleveland's bid for a combined no-hitter with a leadoff single in the ninth inning of the Indians' 4-1 win Thursday night.
Bauer was attempting to throw Cleveland's first no-hitter in 38 years.
Today we have a general trend of 7.5 to 7. This means we will avoid the OVER again.
Prior to yesterday, the average total in this overall series was 8.5 or greater.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Trent Thornton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Indians RH Shane Bieber (0-0, 4.50)
Thornton was dominant in his first major-league appearance Sunday against Detroit, allowing only a pair of singles over five scoreless innings while setting a club record for the most strikeouts in a debut with eight. The native of North Carolina is getting a shot in the rotation due to Ryan Borucki's elbow injury that is expected to keep him sidelined until the end of the month. Thornton went 32-19 with a 4.23 ERA in 88 games (78 starts) in the minors, although he was only 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA at Triple-A Fresno last season.
Bieber is the Indians' fifth starter but only has worked out of the bullpen so far since Cleveland was given two early off-days. The 23-year-old gave up a run over two frames Sunday in Minnesota after going 11-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) as a rookie last season. Rowdy Tellez (2-for-3) is among a handful of Blue Jays with limited exposure to Bieber, who beat Toronto in his only game against them last year after yielding three earned runs in 6 1/3 frames.
Yankees vs. Orioles
Trend Edge: OVER
This trend held up yesterday with 12 runs scored.
We're off today with this series.
Red Sox vs. Athletics
Trend Edge: Athletics
This trend came through as well with a win by Oakland and the Red Sox are now 2-6.
This series is complete. Oakland won three of the last four and is now off to play Houston.
Boston takes on Arizona in interleague play.
Mariners vs. White Sox
Trend Edge: Mariners
Seattle comes into this game 7-1 on the season thus far.
They have won seven of the last nine head-to-heads versus the White Sox.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners LH Yusei Kikuchi (0-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00)
Kikuchi has received a pair of no-decisions to start his major league career, including a quality start in a 7-6 loss to Boston on Friday in which he allowed two earned runs and four hits while striking out five over six innings. The 27-year-old, who was 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA in eight seasons in Japan, started the Mariners' second game of the season in Tokyo. Kikuchi saw his ailing father for the final time during that trip and the decision was made to honor him by not missing any games.
Lopez yielded four runs, six hits and four walks across four innings while throwing only 50 of his 88 pitches for strikes in an 8-6 loss at Kansas City on Saturday.
65% of the early action was on Seattle. The line is moving generally moving from -130 to -117.
We'll be staying away from this one.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Trend Edge: Under
Five of the last six games in this series played in Colorado have gone UNDER the current total of 10.5.
Nine of the last ten in meetings have gone UNDER the current total of 10.5.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Kenta Maeda (1-0, 4.05 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Tyler Anderson (0-1, 9.00)
Maeda allowed three solo home runs in his last start.
The total is just sitting at 10.5 early and simply does not appeal to us with these starting pitchers.
Padres vs. Cardinals
Trend Edge: Under
Seven of the last nine games in this series have gone UNDER the current number of 7.5. The UNDER is actually 5-0 in the last five meetings.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres LH Nick Margevicius (0-1, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Jack Flaherty (0-0, 8.31)
Margevicius made an impressive major league debut Saturday against San Francisco, allowing one run and three hits in five-plus innings.
Flaherty is looking to bounce back following a rough season debut against Milwaukee on Saturday, when he gave up four runs on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings.
Flaherty pitches better at home with a 3.35 ERA in 14 career home starts.
The number here is dropping from 8 to 7.5, so we do like this total movement (a half run down in the total).
The Cardinals are 1-6 in Flaherty's last 7 starts, so that's just enough to keep us off the UNDER here.
2019 MLB Record: 3-0 (100%)
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
