Major League Baseball Betting Trends, Free Pick April 20 (Podcast)
Gambling911.com has your Major League Baseball betting trends for Saturday April 20.
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Twins vs. Orioles
Which Team/Total Outcome Stands Out Here:
OVER (only because it's rare to see more action on the UNDER)
Why?
Public all over the UNDER
What We Like Here:
- Nearly 80% of the action on the UNDER
- Minnesota has won the last six meetings versus Baltimore
- Jose Berrios has four straight quality starts
What We Don't Like Here:
- The total has dropped at some books from 10.5 to 9.5
- Price too high on Minnesota and Berrios at -208
- Really don't like double headers
This is the first game of a double header.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins RH Jose Berrios (2-1, 2.30 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Dan Straily (1-1, 10.24)
Berrios has four straight quality starts out of the gate while striking out 28 in 27 1/3 innings with just five walks. He has held opponents to 15 hits in 27 1/3 innings, including just four over 6 2/3 frames in a win over Detroit on Sunday. The 24-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in two career starts at Camden Yards.
Straily gave up 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings over his first two starts before finding a groove at Boston on Monday. He held the Red Sox to one run and two hits in five innings to pick up his first win with Baltimore. First baseman C.J. Cron is 2-for-3 with a home run and a double against Straily, who has a 2.13 ERA in two career starts versus the Twins.
Giants vs. Pirates
Which Team/Total Outcome Stands Out Here:
San Francisco Giants
UNDER
Why?
San Francisco competitive versus Pittsburgh and two good pitchers coming off no wins their last outings
What We Like Here:
- These teams have been competitive versus one another, each winning five of their last ten meetings
- San Francisco has the best bullpen right now (a 2.33 ERA combined)
- Two solid pitchers, one (Derek Holland) coming off a loss, the other (Jameson Taillon) yet to have a win this season
- The total trending from 7.5 to 7 looks like books trying to get people to take the OVER
What We Don't Like Here:
- Giants only 8-13 coming into this game compared to Pirates 11-6 record
- Pittsburgh on a four game winning streak
- San Francisco on three game losing streak
Better than 70% of the early action was on the Pirates yet the oddsmakers were dropping that line and making Pittsburgh more of an enticement from a -165 to -133 favorite.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants LH Derek Holland (1-2, 4.09 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (0-2, 3.43)
Holland allowed a season-high four runs in six innings in a loss to Colorado at home Sunday. He has 27 strikeouts in 22 innings on the year but has also walked 12 while serving up four home runs. The 32-year-old worked around five walks across 6 1/3 scoreless innings to get the win in his only prior start at PNC Park last May.
Taillon has yet to break into the win column, although he did notch a quality start Sunday in Washington, holding the Nationals to three runs in six frames. The former No. 2 overall pick yielded a run on three hits in seven innings in his only prior home start this year, settling for a no-decision against St. Louis. Posey is 4-for-6 with two doubles against Taillon, who has been reached for 12 earned runs in 12 innings over his first three career starts versus the Giants.
Half of the last ten meetings have resulted in seven or fewer runs.
While Holland's last start for San Francisco against Pittsburgh resulted in a score of 13-10 (San Francisco winning), his previous start against the Pirates ended with just 5 runs scored (0 by Pittsburgh) while Taillon's last start against San Francisco ended with the Giants scoring just two runs.
Rays vs. Red Sox
Which Team/Total Outcome Stands Out Here:
Boston Red Sox
Why?
Line dropping on Tampa and Rick Porcello needs win badly for Boston
What We Like Here:
- Tempting price on Tampa Bay at home -137
- 60% of bets on Tampa Bay
What We Don't Like Here:
- Line movement on Tampa was down from -148 to -137
- Tampa hot at 14-6
- Boston just 7-13
- Tampa is 4-1 in the last five meetings
- Red Sox suspect starting pitching
The total on this game has moved between 8 and 8.5. Five of the last seven meetings have resulted in total runs OVER 8.5.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12 ERA) vs. Rays RH Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18)
Porcello issued five walks in four innings and was charged with three runs and six hits in a loss to Baltimore last Saturday, which lowered his ERA from 13.50 to 11.12. The former AL Cy Young Award winner is struggling with his command and issued a total of 12 walks to go with 22 hits in 11 1/3 innings over his first three outings. Porcello made five starts against Tampa Bay last season and went 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA, with both losses coming at Tropicana Field.
Morton is proving to be a solid addition to the Rays staff and surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his first four outings. The 35-year-old completed six innings in only one of those turns and was limited to 4 2/3 innings at Toronto on Sunday while allowing one run and four hits. Morton saw the Red Sox in the playoffs last season as a member of the Houston Astros and was knocked around for three runs on three hits and a pair of walks in 2 1/3 innings.
2019 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (60%)
2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)
2018-19 NBA Record: 7-4 (63.4%)
2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)
2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)
- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
